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データとしての画像:画像解析・機械学習・GIS技術による政治現象の新たな実証分析

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20H01466
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 06020:International relations-related
Research InstitutionOsaka Metropolitan University (2022-2023)
Hiroshima University (2020-2021)

Principal Investigator

伊藤 岳  大阪公立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 准教授 (80773895)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 吉田 雄一朗  広島大学, IDEC国際連携機構:CEPEAS, 教授 (70339919)
TRAN ANH・DUC  一橋大学, 社会科学高等研究院, 特任講師 (10868467)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,750,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Keywords武力紛争 / 地理情報システム / 画像解析 / 機械学習 / 実証分析 / 歴史現象の長期的影響 / 地理情報システム(GIS)
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究は画像資料・史料と機械学習・画像処理技術を用いて,歴史的・現代的な政治現象の実証分析に取り組む。具体的には,(1) 航空写真・地図・衛星画像を機械学習・画像処理技術で処理し,サブナショナルな単位での戦災・植民地期インフラ投資等をデータ化する。次いで,(2) 作成したデータと統計的因果推論の手法により,a)歴史的現象(e.g., 植民地統治の地理的拡大)の決定要因,b)歴史的現象の長期的影響(e.g., 植民地期投資の現在の経済発展への影響),c)現代的現象の短期的影響(e.g., 国境付近の「緩衝地帯」設定の,内戦の地理的展開への影響) と,d)背後に働く因果メカニズムを明らかにする。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究計画の目的は,電子化や公開が進む画像資料・史料を機械学習・画像処理技術を用いて計量分析に活用し,「データとしての画像」というアプローチに基づく,新たな実証的知見を提示することにある。具体的には,(1)航空写真・地図・衛星画像(e.g.,植民地の鉄道敷設・行政地図,近年の衛星画像)を機械学習・画像処理技術で処理し,サブナショナルな単位で植民地期のインフラ投資等をデータ化する。次いで,(2)作成したデータと統計的因果推論の手法により,(a)「歴史的現象の決定要因」(e.g.,植民地統治の地理的拡大の決定要因),(b)「歴史的現象の長期的影響」(e.g.,植民地期投資の現在の経済発展への影響),(c)「現代的現象の短期的影響」(e.g.,国境付近の「緩衝地帯」の設定の,内戦の地理的展開への影響)と,(d)その背後に働く因果メカニズムを明らかにする。

具体的には,今年度は(1)新たなデータの作成とそれを用いた実証分析,(2)海外での資料収集,サーベイ調査とフィールド実験,および(3)収集した資料,サーベイ調査とフィールドを用いた実証分析をそれぞれ進めることができ,成果の一部をまとめた論文の投稿にも至った。特に(1)については,従来実証研究での活用が進んでいなかった,ベトナム戦争期における米軍による枯葉剤散布記録と関連データを整備し,これらのデータを用いた枯葉剤の長期的影響を巡る実証分析を進めることができた。また,ベトナム戦争期の枯葉剤散布が残した長期的影響を扱った論文等,従前より投稿していた論文の公刊や新たな論文の投稿につなげることができた。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

研究成果を論文等の形で公表することができ,継続中のデータ作成,分析や新たな実験,分析の準備も進めることができた。海外で実施予定だったフィールド実験については一部延期,見直した実験,分析等もあるが,今後も論文等の形で成果を提出できるよう,データ作成・収集・分析等の作業を進めていく。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

来年度以降も,引き続きデータ作成・収集・分析等の作業を進める。また,2022年度まで新型コロナウイルスの影響もあり延期していた現地での資料収集,サーベイ調査,フィールド実験等や,それらに基づく分析や論文等の成果取りまとめを中心に,研究計画を進める。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Pennsylvania(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Columbia University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Strathclyde(英国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Strathclyde(英国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Harvard University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Destruction from Above: Long-Term Legacies of the Tokyo Air Raids2024

    • Author(s)
      Harada Masataka、Ito Gaku、Smith Daniel M.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Politics

      Volume: 86 Issue: 2 Pages: 782-797

    • DOI

      10.1086/726942

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Child online safety education: A program evaluation combining a randomized controlled trial and list experiments in Vietnam2024

    • Author(s)
      Pham Truong、Goto Daisaku、Tran Duc
    • Journal Title

      Computers in Human Behavior

      Volume: 156 Pages: 108225-108225

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.chb.2024.108225

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Financial inclusion and expenditure patterns: Insights from slum households in Bangladesh2024

    • Author(s)
      Bari, M. A., Khan, G. D., Khuram, M. A., Islam, M. J. and Yoshida, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Cogent Economics & Finance

      Volume: 12 (1) Issue: 1 Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1080/23322039.2024.2312364

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Promoting the itemized educational spending of rural coastal households in Bangladesh through unconditional cash and food assistance2024

    • Author(s)
      Bari Md. Abdul、Khan Ghulam Dastgir、Yoshida Yuichiro、Kusakabe Tatsuya
    • Journal Title

      Asia Pacific Education Review

      Volume: - Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1007/s12564-024-09936-7

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Making Sense of Violence in Semi-Technologized Conventional Civil War: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Yuichi Kubota, Gaku Ito, and Masataka Harada
    • Journal Title

      International Interactions

      Volume: - Issue: 3 Pages: 1-23

    • DOI

      10.1080/03050629.2023.2180501

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 政治的暴力はその後の社会にどのような影響を及ぼすのか?2022

    • Author(s)
      伊藤岳
    • Journal Title

      経済セミナー

      Volume: 728 Pages: 36-42

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of Unconditional Cash and Food Assistance on Contraceptive Expenditure of Rural Households in Coastal Bangladesh: Evidence from Fuzzy RDD2022

    • Author(s)
      Bari, M. A., Khan, G. D., He, B. and Yoshida, Y.
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 17 (1) Issue: 1 Pages: e0262031-e0262031

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0262031

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Why does ethnic partition foster violence? Unpacking the deep historical roots of civil conflicts2021

    • Author(s)
      Ito Gaku
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Peace Research

      Volume: 58 Issue: 5 Pages: 986-1003

    • DOI

      10.1177/0022343320957377

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mining-induced displacement and resettlement in Afghanistan's Aynak mining community: Exploring the right to fair compensation2021

    • Author(s)
      Khan Ghulam Dastgir、Yoshida Yuichiro、Katayanagi Mari、Hotak Nematullah、Caro-Burnett Johann
    • Journal Title

      Resources Policy

      Volume: 74 Pages: 102285-102285

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102285

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Household access to water and education for girls: The case of villages in hilly and mountainous areas of Nepal2021

    • Author(s)
      Dhital Ram Prasad、Ito Takahiro、Kaneko Shinji、Komatsu Satoru、Yoshida Yuichiro
    • Journal Title

      Oxford Development Studies

      Volume: なし Issue: 2 Pages: 1-16

    • DOI

      10.1080/13600818.2021.1965978

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Not Gone with the Wind: Long-Run Impact of Herbicidal Warfare in Vietnam2023

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Gaku, Duc Tran, Yuichiro Yoshida
    • Organizer
      Pacific International Politics Conference 2023
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Unpacking the Legacies of Chemical Warfare: Evidence from the Vietnam War2022

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Gaku, Duc Tran, and Yuichiro Yoshida
    • Organizer
      American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the Persistent Effects of the Slave Trade on Postcolonial Politics in Africa2021

    • Author(s)
      Gaku Ito
    • Organizer
      International Studies Association
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How Peacekeeping Escalates Battles: Effects of the UN Peacekeeping on Civil War Battles2020

    • Author(s)
      Gaku Ito and Jun Koga Sudduth
    • Organizer
      American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 「第6章 国際制度としての国境の計量分析:国境画定がもたらす民族紛争への影響」鈴木基史・飯田敬 輔編『国際関係研究の方法:解説と実践』2021

    • Author(s)
      伊藤岳
    • Total Pages
      326
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] "On the Electoral Consequences of Increasing Chinese Imports: Insights from the Japanese Lower House General Elections, 2009-2017," in Jun Ma and Masashi Yamamoto (eds.) Growth Mechanisms and Sustainability: Economic Analysis of the Steel Industry in East Asia, Chapter 112021

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Gaku
    • Total Pages
      309
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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