Evaluation and prediction of the resilience of biological communities under global environmental change

• Project/Area Number: 20H03010
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 39060:Conservation of biological resources-related
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Kadoya Taku 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 室長 (40451843)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 鈴木 健大 国立研究開発法人理化学研究所, バイオリソース研究センター, 開発研究員 (00748999)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥14,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,330,000); Fiscal Year 2022: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
• Keywords: 生物多様性 / 生物群集 / 生物間相互作用 / 安定性 / 群集生態学 / 共起性 / 気候変動 / 群集組成 / 湖沼 / 魚類 / 群集構造

Outline of Research at the Start

気候変動や土地利用の集約化・放棄など、大規模・広域的な環境変動の生態系への影響が顕在化している。本研究は、広域的な環境変動に対する生態系の応答予測の汎用的な枠組みを作ることを目的とする。特に、生物群集内の生物間相互作用をモデル化し、これまで理論や実験等では困難であった、複雑な野外群集全体を対象とした安定性の広域的な定量化や安定性自体の環境依存性の解明を可能にする手法の開発を行う。その上で、淡水魚類等の野外生物群集を対象として上記の手法の適用・検証を行う。さらに、気候変動や土地利用変化などの広域的な環境変動が野外生物群集の組成や安定性にどのような影響を与えるかを評価・予測する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The impacts of global environmental changes, such as climate change and land use intensification and abandonment, on ecosystems are becoming increasingly apparent. This study aims to create a general framework for predicting the response of ecosystems to global change. Specifically, we aimed to (1) utilize a simultaneous distribution estimation model that explicitly considers the interactions among the many organisms that make up a community, (2) extend Energy Landscape Analysis recently introduced to the area of ecological research to evaluate and quantify the stability of community composition, which has been a difficult task, especially at large scales. In addition, we applied and verified the above methods to microbial communities, and to freshwater fish communities of which observation data were collected in Japan, Europe, and North America.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、生態系の環境応答予測の普遍的な枠組みを構築することで、生物群集内の生物間相互作用を明示的に考慮し、これまで理論や実験等では困難であった複雑な野外群集全体を対象として安定性の広域的な定量化や安定性自体の環境依存性の解明につながる方法論を確立した。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] University of North Carolina(米国)
• [Journal Article] Facilitative interaction networks in experimental microbial community dynamics (2023)
  • Author(s): Fujita H, Ushio M, Suzuki K, Abe MS, Yamamichi Y, Yusuke Okazaki, Canarini A, Hayashi I, Fukushima K, Fukuda S, Kiers ET, Toju H (
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Microbiology Volume: 14 Pages: 153952-153952
  • DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1153952
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Alternative stable states, nonlinear behavior, and predictability of microbiome dynamics (2023)
  • Author(s): Fujita H, Ushio M, Suzuki K, Abe MS, Yamamichi Y, Iwayama K, Canarini A, Hayashi I, Fukushima K, Fukuda S, Kiers ET, Toju H
  • Journal Title: Microbiome Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 63-63
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40168-023-01474-5
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation of silent phenotypes of calf antibiotic dysbiosis (2023)
  • Author(s): Okada, Shunnosuke Inabu, Yudai Miyamoto, Hirokuni Suzuki, Kenta Kato, Tamotsu Kurotani, Atsushi Taguchi, Yutaka Fujino, Ryoichi Shiotsuka, Yuji Etoh, Tetsuji
  • Journal Title: Scientific reports Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Pages: 6359-6359
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-33444-0
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Computational estimation of sediment symbiotic bacterial structures of seagrasses overgrowing downstream of onshore aquaculture (2023)
  • Author(s): Miyamoto, Hirokuni Kawachi, Nobuhiro Kurotani, Atsushi Moriya, Shigeharu Suda, Wataru Suzuki, Kenta Matsuura, Makiko Tsuji, Naoko Nakaguma, Teruno Ishii, Chitose
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Volume: 219 Pages: 115130-115130
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115130
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Multispecies site occupancy modelling and study design for spatially replicated environmental DNA metabarcoding (2022)
  • Author(s): K. Fukaya, N. I. Kondo, S. S. Matsuzaki, T. Kadoya
  • Journal Title: Methods in Ecology and Evolution Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Pages: 183-193
  • DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13732
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Emergent dual scaling of riverine biodiversity (2021)
  • Author(s): Terui, A., Kim, S., Dolph, C. L., Kadoya, T., & Miyazaki, Y.
  • Journal Title: Terui, A., Kim, S., Dolph, C. L., Kadoya, T., & Miyazaki, Y. (2021). Emergent dual scaling of riverine biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Volume: 118 Issue: 47
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2105574118
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Energy landscape analysis elucidates the multistability of ecological communities across environmental gradients (2021)
  • Author(s): Suzuki Kenta、Nakaoka Shinji、Fukuda Shinji、Masuya Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Ecological Monographs Volume: TBD Issue: 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1469
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] エネルギーランドスケープ解析による群集集合・レジームシフト理論の融合 (2021)
  • Author(s): 鈴木健大
  • Organizer: 日本生態学会