Dynamic Prediction of Traffic Situations and Travel Time on Winter Road Surface

• Project/Area Number: 22560524
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: NAKATSUJI Takashi 北海道大学, 大学院・工学研究院, 教授 (60123949)
• Project Period (FY): 2010 – 2012
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
• Keywords: 旅行時間予測 / フィードバック / 冬期路面 / 交通シミュレーション / API / ITS / 追従挙動 / プローブ車

Research Abstract

In order to clarify the characteristics of traffic flow on winter road surfaces,1)some features of reaction time, potential collision, and shockwave were compared with those on summer roads using the car-following data on actual roads. 2) An inverse method of estimating traffic situation and traffic demand on real time was developed by integrating the API module into unscented Kalman filtering. 3) A dynamic travel time prediction model that implemented the above achievements based on feedback concept was developped and justified with the precision.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Development of Various Artificial Neural Network Car-Following Models with Converted Data Sets by A Self-Organization Neural Network (2013)
  • Author(s): M. Tanaka and T. Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: Proc.Transportation Research Board 92th Annual Meeting Volume: Vol.92
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Development of Various Artificial Neural Network Car-Following Models with Converted Data Sets by A Self-Organization Neural Network (2013)
  • Author(s): Mitsuru TANAKA
  • Journal Title: Proc. 92th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board Volume: 92
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 交通流シミュレータのAPI機能を用いたモデルパラメータの同定と動的OD推定 (2012)
  • Author(s): 近藤健祐、中辻隆
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集D3特集号 Volume: Vol.68,No.5
  • NAID: 130004559668
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Neural Network Kalman Smoother for Filling up Missing Probe Vehicle Data (2012)
  • Author(s): K. C. Choy and T. Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Volume: Vol.45
• [Journal Article] 交通シミュレーターを用いた商用車プローブカーデータによる旅行時間の予測性について (2012)
  • Author(s): 吉田雄介、中辻隆
  • Journal Title: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Volume: Vol.46
• [Journal Article] Neural Network Kalman Smoother for Filling up Missing Probe Vehicle Data (2012)
  • Author(s): Kam Cheong CHOY
  • Journal Title: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Volume: 45
• [Journal Article] 交通シミュレーターを用いた商用車プローブカーデータによる旅行時間の予測性について (2012)
  • Author(s): 吉田 雄介
  • Journal Title: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Volume: 46
• [Journal Article] 交通流シミュレータのAPI機能を用いたモデルパラメータの同定と動的OD推定 (2012)
  • Author(s): 近藤健祐
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集D3特集号 Volume: 68
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Shock Waves and Speed Peak Propagation in Stop-and-Go Car-Following Conditions Within Short Distance, Proc (2011)
  • Author(s): Tanaka M. and Nakatsuji T
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting Volume: Vol.90
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dynamic Travel Time Estimation using On-line Microsimulationon Expressway for Advance Traveler Information System (2011)
  • Author(s): Rotwannasin P., Wajanasathienkul W.Narupiti S. and Nakatsuji, T
  • Journal Title: Journal of 9th East Asia Society for Transportation Study Conference Volume: Vol.9
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of Road Surface Conditions on Human Driving Behavior (2011)
  • Author(s): P. Ranjitkar and T. Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: Journal of 9th East Asia Society for Transportation Study Conference Volume: Vol.9
  • NAID: 130004565116
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Assignment-Matrix-Free Dynamic Estimation of Origin-Destination Matrices (2011)
  • Author(s): Pueboobpaphan R., and Nakatsuji T
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集 Volume: Vol.67,No.3 Pages: 327-338
  • NAID: 130004559473
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Comprehensive Approach for Data Scarcity Problem in Real-Time OD Matrix Estimation (2011)
  • Author(s): A. Anburuvel and T. Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集D3特集号 Volume: Vol.67,No.5
  • NAID: 130004559502
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dynamic Travel Time Estimation using On-lineMicrosimulation Model Integrated Short- Term Prediction for ATIS (2011)
  • Author(s): Rotwannasin P., Narupiti S. and Nakatsuji T
  • Journal Title: Proc. 11th Asia-Pacific ITS Forum and Exhibition
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Assignment-Matrix-Free Dynamic Estimation of Origin-Destination Matrices (2011)
  • Author(s): Pueboobpaphan Rattaphol, Nakatsuji Takashi
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集 Volume: D3, 67, No.3 Pages: 327-338
  • NAID: 130004559473
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Comprehensive Approach for Data Scarcity Problem in Real-Time OD Matrix Estimation (2011)
  • Author(s): Arulanantham Anburuvel, Takashi Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集 Volume: D3, 67, No.5(CD-ROM)
  • NAID: 130004559502
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Shock Waves and Speed Peak Propagation in Stop-and-Go Car-Following Conditions Within Short Distance (2011)
  • Author(s): Tanaka Mitsuru, Nakatsuji Takashi
  • Journal Title: Proc.Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Volume: (CD-ROM) Pages: 11-1779
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dynamic Travel Time Estimation using On-line Microsimulation on Expressway for Advance Traveler Information System (2011)
  • Author(s): Rotwannasin P., Wajanasathienkul W., Narupiti S, Nakatsuji, T.
  • Journal Title: Journal of The 9th East Asia Society for Transportation Study Conference Volume: (CD-ROM) Pages: 100174-100174
  • NAID: 130005037475
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dynamic Travel Time Estimation using On-line Microsimulation Model Integrated Short-Term Prediction for ATIS (2011)
  • Author(s): Rotwannasin P., Narupiti S, Nakatsuji, T.
  • Journal Title: Proc.11th Asia-Pacific ITS Forum and Exhibition Volume: (CD-ROM)
• [Journal Article] Impact of Road Surface Conditions on Human Driving Behavior (2011)
  • Author(s): Prakash Ranjitkar, Takashi Nakatsuji
  • Journal Title: Journal of The 9th East Asia Society for Transportation Study Conference Volume: (CD-ROM) Pages: 100290-100290
  • NAID: 130004565116
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comparison of Driving Behavior and Safety in Car-Following Platoons Under Icy and Dry Surface Conditions (2010)
  • Author(s): T. Mitsuru, R. Prakash, Nakatsuji T
  • Journal Title: Proc.Transportation Research Board 89t Annual Meeting Volume: Vol.89
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Trajectory-Based Analysis of Drivers'Response in Car-Following Situations (2010)
  • Author(s): R. Prakash, T. Mitsuru, Nakatsuji T
  • Journal Title: Proc. Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting Volume: Vol.89
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] モデルパラメータのオンライン推計のための交通流シミュレーターAPIとパーティクルフィルタの統合環境について (2010)
  • Author(s): 藤井涼、中辻隆
  • Journal Title: 土木計画学研究・講演集 Volume: Vol.42
• [Journal Article] Comparison of Driving Behavior and Safety in Car-Following Platoons Under Icy and Dry Surface Conditions (2010)
  • Author(s): Tanaka Mitsuru, Ranjitkar Prakash, Nakatsuji Takashi
  • Journal Title: Proc.Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting Volume: 89
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Trajectory-Based Analysis of Drivers' Response in Car-Following Situations (2010)
  • Author(s): Ranjitkar Prakash, Nakatsuji Takashi
  • Journal Title: Proc.Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting Volume: 89
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Development of Various Artificial Neural Network Car-Following Models with Converted Data Sets by A Self-Organization Neural Network (2013)
  • Author(s): M. Tanaka and T.Nakatsuji
  • Organizer: 92nd Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board
  • Place of Presentation: Hilton Hotel, Washington D.C., USA
  • Year and Date: 2013-01-16
• [Presentation] Development of Various Artificial Neural Network Car-Following Models with Converted Data Sets by A Self-Organization Neural Network (2013)
  • Author(s): Mitsuru TANAKA
  • Organizer: Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board
  • Place of Presentation: Washington DC, USA
• [Presentation] 交通流シミュレーターのAPI機能を用いたモデルパラメータの較正と動的OD推定に関する研究 (2011)
  • Author(s): 近藤健祐, A. ANBURUVEL,中辻隆
  • Organizer: 第44回土木計画学研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 岐阜大学、岐阜
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-27
• [Presentation] Particle Filterを用いたMicro simulationの動的パラメータ推定の実ネットワークへの適応 (2011)
  • Author(s): 藤井涼、大園渉、奥野潤、中辻隆
  • Organizer: 第44回土木計画学研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 岐阜大学、岐阜
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-27
• [Presentation] 交通流シミュレーターのAPI機能を用いたモデルパラメータの較正と動的OD推定に関する研究 (2011)
  • Author(s): 近藤健祐, Arulanantham ANBURUVEL, 中辻隆
  • Organizer: 第44回土木計画学研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 岐阜大学、(岐阜)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-27
• [Presentation] Particle Filterを用いたMicro simulationの動的パラメータ推定の実ネットワークへの適応 (2011)
  • Author(s): 藤井涼、大園渉、奥野潤、中辻隆
  • Organizer: 第44回土木計画学研究発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 岐阜大学、(岐阜)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-26
• [Presentation] Evaluation of Real Time Route Guidance Information to Cargo Trucks Based on Travel Time Estimated by Taxi Probe Data (2010)
  • Author(s): T. Nakatsuji
  • Organizer: The 3rd ASEAN Civil Engineering Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Shangri-la Hotel, Manila, Philippine
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-11
• [Presentation] Evaluation of Real Time Route Guidance Information to Cargo Trucks Based on Travel Time Estimated by Taxi Probe Data (2010)
  • Author(s): Takashi NAKATSUJI
  • Organizer: The 3rd ASEAN Civil Engineering Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Shangri-la Hotel, Manila 招待講演
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-11