The Impact of US - China Trade War on Vietnam

Research Project

Project/Area Number	22K01456
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research Institution	National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
Principal Investigator	WIE Dainn 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (50600649)
Project Period (FY)	2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status	Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help	¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000) Fiscal Year 2024: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000) Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000) Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords	trade war / trade diversion / export / productivity / informality / FDI / trade competition / firm productivity / informal employment / Foreign direct
Outline of Research at the Start	The project aims to establish an understanding of the US-China trade war in the context of Vietnam, a developing country having a competitive relationship with China for export to the United States. We plan to examine the impact of the trade war on Vietnam in three aspects: trade flow, firms, and the labor market. The project intends to contribute to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence of the trade war on Vietnam in a timely fashion.
Outline of Annual Research Achievements	In FY2023, our project focused on refining our research efforts, resulting in the production of two working papers. For each paper, we enhanced the quality of our data, conducted robustness tests, and strengthened our arguments and claims. We investigated the impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnam, analyzing how Vietnamese firms benefited and its effects on productivity and informal labor. We found that the trade war increased Vietnam’s exports to the US, not solely due to re-routing Chinese products. These opportunities significantly boosted firms’ productivity and reduced informal labor. We presented our findings at an international conference and submitted articles to journals. Currently, we are in the process of revising our manuscripts based on the feedback received from these journals' reviewers.
Current Status of Research Progress	Current Status of Research Progress 2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned. Reason The project progressed smoothly, benefiting from generous funding, dedicated and skilled team members, and a supportive academic environment for all involved.
Strategy for Future Research Activity	Submitting to and ultimately publishing in economics journals is a time-consuming process, often spanning several years. We are committed to diligently addressing reviewers' comments and revising our work to meet academic standards for publication. Additionally, we will continue to disseminate our findings by presenting at international conferences.