| Project/Area Number |
22KF0010
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| Project/Area Number (Other) |
22F32012 (2022)
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund (2023)
Single-year Grants (2022) |
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| Section | 外国 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
藤原 正智 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 教授 (00360941)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
DOGAR MUHAMMAD 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-03-08 – 2025-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
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| Keywords | climate / volcanic eruption / climate modeling / numerical experiments / El Nino / La Nina / ENSO / NAO / Southern Oscillation |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The aim of this research project is to improve our understanding of the climate response to volcanic eruptions by conducting several numerical experiments using a global climate model. This project will focus on (a) the role of strong tropical and high latitude eruptions in modifying atmospheric circulation, (b) the role of the background initial conditions of the equatorial Pacific surface temperature and the stratospheric circulation at the time of the eruption, and (c) understanding the volcanically induced low-to-high latitude teleconnections.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Dr. Dogar has analyzed data from his ensemble numerical experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) run on the Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility in the previous year. Dr. Dogar has written up a journal paper manuscript titled "ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post-Volcanic High-Latitude Winter Warming", which has been published in Geophysical Research Letter in January 2024. The main message of the paper is, "Our simulations strongly suggest that the post-eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post-eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO-preconditioned variability." Furthermore, using the same simulation data set, Dr. Dogar has written up another manuscript titled "Volcanic Whispers: Decoding Post-eruption Winter Cooling Mysteries in the Middle East and North Africa - Unraveling ENSO and NAO Dynamics" and submitted it to another journal.
Dr. Dogar attended the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2023 in December 2023 and the US CLIVAR's Workshop on Confronting Earth System Model Trends with Observations: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly and presented these works there.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.
Reason
In the past two years i.e. during the term of this budget, numerical experiments have been successfully conducted as planned, two papers have been published, and one paper has been submitted and under review.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
We think that the proposed research for this budget has been largely completed with very satisfactory results. The remaining issue is to work on the submitted manuscript until its publication.
Based on the results obtained with this budget, Dr. Dogar will consider new research plans to further improve our understanding of the climate response to volcanic eruptions.
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