Prediction and detection of climate warming impact on species diversity of ferns

• Project/Area Number: 23310028
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental impact assessment/Environmental policy
• Research Institution: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: TANAKA Nobuyuki 独立行政法人森林総合研究所, 北海道支所, 地域研究監 (80353762)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): MATSUI Tetsuya 森林総合研究所, 植物生態研究領域, チーム長 (20414493)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
• Budget Amount: ¥12,350,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,850,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
• Keywords: 植物生態学 / 分布予測モデル / 分布移動 / モニタリング / 地理情報システム(GIS) / 潜在生育域 / 適域 / 植生調査 / 脆弱性 / 地理情報システム（GIS) / 植物社会学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to predict and detect impacts of climate warming on distributions of ferns in Japan, the following four themes have been studies. (1) Statistical models using climatic data were developed for 7 fern species to predict their potential and suitable habitats under future climates. (2) Climatic data from 20 GCMs were compared to assess the uncertainty in predicting habitats of species. (3) Sixty two vegetation survey plots were set up along elevational gradients of valleys and ridges on different aspects to detect changes of fern distributions in Mt. Tsukuba with vegetation sensitive to climate warming. (4) Thirty vegetation survey plots were set up in Niseko mountains with sensitive vegetation in Hokkaido.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Influence of non-climatic factors on habitat prediction of tree species and assessment of climate change impact. (2013)
  • Author(s): Higa, M., Tsuyama, I., Nakao, K., Nakazono, E., Matsui, T. and Tanaka, N.
  • Journal Title: Landscape and Ecological Engineering Volume: 9 Pages: 111-120
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 気候温暖化の自然林への影響と適応策 (2013)
  • Author(s): 田中信行
  • Journal Title: グリーンテクノ情報 Volume: 9(3) Pages: 15-19
• [Journal Article] 植物分布を規定する気候要因の特定および気候変化に伴う生育地の移動予測 (2012)
  • Author(s): 田中信行・松井哲哉・津山幾太郎・小南裕志
  • Journal Title: 天気 Volume: 59(8) Pages: 681-686
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] 空中写真を用いた筑波山の植生変化とその気候的要因 (2015)
  • Author(s): 安田正次, 中園悦子, 田中信行, 大丸裕武
  • Organizer: 日本地理学会2015年春季学術大会
  • Place of Presentation: 日本大学文理学部
  • Year and Date: 2015-03-28 – 2015-03-30
• [Presentation] 気候変動による森林植生への影響評価・検出および適応策の事例 (2015)
  • Author(s): 松井哲哉，中尾勝洋，安田正次，中園悦子，津山幾太郎，大橋春香，大丸裕武，小南裕志，田中信行
  • Organizer: 第126回日本森林学会大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学
  • Year and Date: 2015-03-27 – 2015-03-28
• [Presentation] 新たに発見された岩内町ブナ北限集団の遺伝的多様性 (2015)
  • Author(s): 北村系子, 田中信行, 津山幾太郎, 松井哲哉, 並川寛司, 齋藤均, 寺澤和彦, 金指あや子, 石塚航
  • Organizer: 第126回日本森林学会大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学
  • Year and Date: 2015-03-27 – 2015-03-28
• [Presentation] Climate change impact assessments by EABCN (2014)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, N.
  • Organizer: The 2014 EABCN Symposium "Conservation and Sustainable Development of Biodiversity in East Asia" hosted by Korea National Arboretum
  • Place of Presentation: Korea National Arboretum, Pocheon, 大韓民国
  • Year and Date: 2014-10-09 – 2014-10-15
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Prediction and detection of climate change impact on plant species distributions in Japan (2013)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, N., Nakao, K., Tsuyama, I., Higa, M., Nakazono, E., Yasuda, M. and Matsui, T.
  • Organizer: International Symposium of the 10th Anniversary of Korea National Herbarium, Role of the Arboretum and Botanical Garden against Climate Change of the East Asia
  • Place of Presentation: Korean National Arboretum
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Prediction of Potential Habitats to Climate Change of Evergreen Fern Species Dicranopteris linearis in Korea (2013)
  • Author(s): Park, Chan-Ho, Yun, Jong-Hak, Nakao, K., Tanaka, N., Kim, Jin-Seok, Kim, Sun-Yu, Park, Sun-Mi and Lee, Byoung-Yoon.
  • Organizer: International Symposium of the 10th Anniversary of Korea National Herbarium, Role of the Arboretum and Botanical Garden against Climate Change of the East Asia
  • Place of Presentation: Korean National Arboretum
• [Presentation] The climate change impact on potential habitats of Abies nephrolepis on the East Asian continent in comparison with that on Abies species in Japan (2012)
  • Author(s): N.Tanaka, K.Nakao, I.Tsuyama, M.Higa, E.Nakazono, T.Matsui
  • Organizer: 日本生態学会第59回全国大会/EAFES5
  • Place of Presentation: 龍谷大学(滋賀県)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-18
• [Presentation] Predicting Impact of climate change on potential habitats of some forest dominant species in Japan (2012)
  • Author(s): T.Matsui, I.Tsuyama, K.Nakao, M.Higa, E.Nakazono, M.Horikawa, Y.Kominami, N.Tanaka
  • Organizer: 日本生態学会第59回全国大会/EAFES5
  • Place of Presentation: 龍谷大学(滋賀県)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-18
• [Presentation] Toward assessment of the impact of climate change on plant species and conservation in East Asia (2012)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, N., Nakao, K., Tsuyama, I., Higa, M., Nakazono and E., Matsui, T.
  • Organizer: The 55th Symposium of the International Association for Vegetation Science
  • Place of Presentation: Mokpo, Korea
• [Presentation] Impact assessment of climate change on potential habitats of Japanese forest species (2012)
  • Author(s): Matsui, T., Tsuyama, I., Nakao, K., Higa, M., Nakazono, E., Horikawa, M., Kominami, Y., Yagihashi, T., and Tanaka, N.
  • Organizer: The 55th Symposium of the International Association for Vegetation Science
  • Place of Presentation: Mokpo, Korea
• [Book] 自然林と人工林における気候温暖化の影響と適応策, 松下和夫,福山研二編「森林環境2015」特集：進行する気候変動と森林～私たちはどう適応するか (2015)
  • Author(s): 田中信行
  • Total Pages: 188
  • Publisher: 森林文化協会
• [Book] 地球温暖化と森林生態系．中村徹編, 森林学への招待 (2015)
  • Author(s): 松井哲哉, 田中信行
  • Total Pages: 176
  • Publisher: 筑波大学出版会
• [Book] Important plants of East Asia: plants tell stories (2014)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, N. et al.
  • Total Pages: 223
  • Publisher: Korea National Arboretum, Pocheon
• [Book] ブータンヒマラヤの自然と登山-千葉大学のヒマラヤ-,千葉大学学士山岳会(吉永英明・大澤雅彦・朱宮丈晴編) (2011)
  • Author(s): 田中信行
  • Publisher: ヒマラヤと東アジアの植生分布-変動する地球環境の中で-