Development of a method with high-reliability to forecast the occurrence of location and time of local heavy rainfall within 24 hours.
| Project/Area Number |
23656304
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Aichi University of Technology (2012)
Gifu University (2011) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YOSHINO Jun 岐阜大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 准教授 (70377688)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
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| Keywords | 河川工学 / 集中豪雨予 / 集中豪雨 / 局地豪雨 / ゲリラ豪雨 / 降雨予測 / モデルアンサンブル予測 / 降水過程 / ビンモデル / データ同化 / 降雨量 / 降水ナウキャスト / 局地気象予報 / アンサンブル予測 / レーダーアメダス解析雨量 / 合成レーダー雨量データ |
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| Research Abstract |
Forecasting method of local heavy rainfall was developed by using a model ensemble approach combining 32 member ensembles obtained from multiple parameterizations in the mesoscale meteorological model PSU/NCAR MM5. The multi-parameterization ensemble forecasts were combined with the model initialized using the 20km resolution global analyses JMA GSM-GPV with the Radar-data assimilation system. The forecasts averaged by 32 members are found to be very skillful in indicating the area of severe local storm activity, while each member deviates largely from the ensemble average.A new rainfall nowcasting approach based on the image processing method taking in complicated changes of rainfall area was developed, by evaluating the deformational errors between observed and predicted rainfall obtained by Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) so as to minimize errors of the JMA rainfall nowcasting in real time based on its evaluation. Results of the verification experiments for intense rainfall events verified that the new approach can remarkably improve the accuracy of rainfall nowcasting by considering complicated deformation processes of rainfall area. Further, it made clear that the predictive value for one hour ahead forecasted by the new approach is at least 10% more accurate than that by the original JMA rainfall nowcasting.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(8 results)
