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Statistical Inference and Model Validation Methods of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models in Macroeconomics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24330060
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypePartial Multi-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionHitotsubashi University

Principal Investigator

Kano Takashi  一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90456179)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) KANO Kazuko  武蔵野大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (20613730)
TAKECHI Kazutaka  法政大学, 経済学部, 教授 (80386341)
Research Collaborator Nason James M.  森田
MORITA Hiroshi  
WADA Kenji  
Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,780,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Keywords動学的確率的一般均衡モデル / ベイズ統計 / 景気循環 / 消費の習慣形成 / 為替レート / ランダムウォーク / 地域間価格差 / 輸送費 / 名目・実質為替レート / アベノミクス / long-run risk / 時変的不確実性 / トレンドインフレ / ニューケインジアンモデル / 沖縄返還 / マクロ経済学 / 国際金融 / 計量経済学 / 応用時系列分析 / 円ドルレート / 名目為替レート / ベイズ推定 / ソロス・チャート / 最小解釈 / ランダムウオーク / ソロスチャート / ニューケインジアン型景気循環モデル / DSGEモデル / 開放経済 / DSGE-VAR / Unobserved Component model
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The project revisits empirically dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models based on Bayesian statistics. In particular, this project reveals that consumption habits improve the fit of a conventional new Keynesian DSGE model only to high frequencies of macroeconomic data but not to business cycle frequencies. Moreover, the project identifies a serious difficulty of a canonical open-economy DSGE model in explaining near random walk nominal exchange rates with other economic fundamentals jointly. Finally, the project provides a better estimate of an important role of transportation costs in regional price dispersion using a unique micro data set of wholesale prices of agricultural products distributed around wholesale markets in Japan.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • 2014 Annual Research Report
  • 2013 Annual Research Report
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 11 results,  Invited: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-run Risk Perspective2017

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano and Kenji Wada
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Money and Finance

      Volume: 74 Pages: 337-352

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.024

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] An equilibrium foundation of the Soros chart2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi, Hiroshi, Morita
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 37 Pages: 21-42

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2015.05.002

    • NAID

      210000165610

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] マクロ計量分析におけるDSGEモデルの役割:「最小解釈」の導入と応用2014

    • Author(s)
      加納隆
    • Journal Title

      日本統計学会和文誌

      Volume: 44 Pages: 159-187

    • NAID

      110009864641

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 為替レートと金融政策:アベノミクス第1の矢の理解に向けて:特別研究:シリーズ「検証・アベノミクス」第3回2014

    • Author(s)
      加納隆
    • Journal Title

      日経研月報

      Volume: 437 Pages: 16-23

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Business cycle implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian models2014

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi, and Nason, James, M.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking

      Volume: 46 Issue: 2-3 Pages: 519-544

    • DOI

      10.1111/jmcb.12115

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multilateral adjustments, regime switching, and real exchange rate dynamics2014

    • Author(s)
      Bailliu, Jeannine, Dib, Ali, Kano, Takashi, and Schembri, Larry
    • Journal Title

      North American Journal of Economics and Finance

      Volume: 27 Pages: 68-87

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.najef.2013.11.003

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Exaggerated Death of Distance: Revisiting Distance Effects on Regional Price Dispersions2013

    • Author(s)
      Kazuko Kano, Takashi Kano, and Kazutaka Takechi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Economics

      Volume: Forthcoming Issue: 2 Pages: 1-11

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.02.002

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Trend Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A New Keynesian Approach2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      Higher Technical School of Engineering University of Seville, Seville, Spain
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-10
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Trend Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A New Keynesian Approach2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      Hitotsubashi Summer Institute 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      一橋大学(東京都・国立市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-run Risk Perspective2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      JIMF-Tokyo Conference: “The Pacific Rim and the Global Economy: Future Financial and Macro Challenge”
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京都・文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-25
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-run Risk Perspective2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      Canadian Economic Association Meetings
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-04
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The first arrow hitting the currency target2016

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      AJRC-HIAS Conference on Recent Issues in Macroeconomics and Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-22
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The first arrow hitting the currency target: a long-run risk perspective2016

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      HKUST-Keio-HKIMR Conference on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics
    • Place of Presentation
      Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong, China
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-17
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The first arrow hitting the currency target: a long-run risk perspective2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      25th NBER-TCER-CEPR Conference on “International Finance in the Global Markets”
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京都・文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-17
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      9th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      Senate House, University of London, London, the United Kingdom
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-13
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The first arrow hitting the currency target: a long-run risk perspective2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      2015 HIAS-LSE Joint Trade Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      London School of Economics and Political Science, London, the United Kingdom
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-19
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      Research School of Economics
    • Place of Presentation
      Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-13
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      2nd International Workshop on Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics
    • Place of Presentation
      ESSCA, Paris, France
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2015

    • Author(s)
      Kano, Takashi
    • Organizer
      Conference on Macroeconomic Issues
    • Place of Presentation
      西江大学, 韓国ソウル市
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-22
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2014

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      the 20th international conference of the Society of Computational Economics (CEF 2014)
    • Place of Presentation
      BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2014

    • Author(s)
      加納隆
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-15
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Exchange rates and fundamentals: closing a two-country model2014

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Kano
    • Organizer
      Canadian Economics Association Meetings
    • Place of Presentation
      Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-01
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] マクロ計量分析におけるDSGEモデル:Minimal Econometric Interpretationの導入とNew Keynesian Modelsへの応用

    • Author(s)
      加納隆
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会春季大会・日本学術会議経済学委員会数量的経済分析分科会チュートリアルセッション「マクロ計量分析」
    • Place of Presentation
      富山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited

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Published: 2012-04-24   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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