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A statistical analysis of effect of environmental change on the limit of human longevity

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24500346
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionShobi University

Principal Investigator

HANAYAMA Nobutane  尚美学園大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 教授 (20299853)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) MUROTANI Kenta  名古屋大学, 医学部付属病院, 助教 (10626443)
SHIKATA Yoshiaki  尚美学園大学, 芸術情報学部情報表現学科, 教授 (60327145)
Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Keywords寿命限界の推定 / 極値理論の応用 / 国際研究者協力(韓国,中国,台湾) / 寿命分布の限界の推定 / 人間の寿命限界の推定 / 国際研究者交流(韓国,中国,台湾) / コホート解析 / 極値理論 / 計量生物学 / 国際研究者交流
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In modern biology, theories of aging fall mainly into two groups. One is a group of theories called damage theories and the other is a group of theories called programed theories. If programed theories are true, the probability that human beings live beyond a specific age will be zero. On the other hand, if damage theories are true, such an age does not exist, and a longevity record will be eventually destroyed as time goes along. In this study, for examining which idea reflects real state, the upper limit of human lifetime distribution (ULHLD) is estimated based on data of Japanese centenarians.
In the beginning of this research project we were expecting to get the result that ULHLD would be finite but varying over time. And we were trying to reveal the relation between the variations of ULHD and our living environment including advancing medical technology. Our actual conclusion, however, ULHLD is 123 years for both male and female and does not vary over time.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (34 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 2012

All Journal Article (12 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 12 results) Presentation (22 results) (of which Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Efficacy and safety of yokukansan in treatment-resistant schizophrenia: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (a Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, five-factor analysis)2015

    • Author(s)
      Miyaoka T, Furuya M, Horiguchi J, Wake R, Hashioka S, Tohyama M, Mori N, Minabe Y, Iyo M, Ueno S, Ezoe S, Murotani K, Hoshino S, Seno H.
    • Journal Title

      Psychopharmacology

      Volume: 232 Issue: 1 Pages: 155-64

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00213-014-3645-8

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Comparative Study on Female Labor Participation in South Korea and Japan - An Extended Age-Period-Cohort(APC) Analysis2014

    • Author(s)
      Hanayama, N. and Hwang. MJ.
    • Journal Title

      Korea Journal of Population

      Volume: 37 Pages: 91-112

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Survival of Centenarian in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Murotani K, Zhou B, Kaneda H, Nakatani E, Kojima S, Nagai Y, Fukushima M
    • Journal Title

      J Biosocial Sci

      Volume: 18 Issue: 6 Pages: 1-11

    • DOI

      10.1017/s0021932014000388

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Decreased expression of prenyl diphosphate synthase subunit 2 correlates with reduced survival of patients with gastric cancer2014

    • Author(s)
      Kanda M, Nomoto S, Oya H, Hashimoto R, Takami H, Shimizu D, Sonohara F, Kobayashi D, Tanaka C, Yamada S, Fujii T, Nakayama G, Sugimoto H, Koike M, Murotani K, Fujiwara M, Kodera Y.
    • Journal Title

      J Experimental Clin Cancer Res

      Volume: 33 Pages: 88-88

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The effects of combine treatment of memantine and donepezil on Alzheimer’s Disease patients and its relationship with cerebral blood flow in the prefrontal area2014

    • Author(s)
      Araki T, Wake R, Miyaoka T, Kawakami K, Nagahama M, Furuya M, Limoa E, Liaury K, Hashioka S, Murotani K and Horiguchi J.
    • Journal Title

      International Journal ofGeriatric Psychiatry

      Volume: first published online Issue: 9 Pages: 881-889

    • DOI

      10.1002/gps.4074

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report 2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multicenter population based study on the prevalence of early onset dementia in Japan: Vascular dementia as its prominent cause2014

    • Author(s)
      Ikejima C, Ikeda M, Hashimoto M, Ogawa Y, Tanimukai S, Kashibayashi T, Miyanaga K, Yonemura K, Kakuma T, Murotani K, Asada T.
    • Journal Title

      Psychiatry Clin Neurosci

      Volume: 68 Pages: 216-224

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Long-term Results of Pulmonary Vein Antrum Isolation in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: an Analysis in Regard to Substrates and Pulmonary Vein Reconnections2014

    • Author(s)
      Yamaguchi.T, Tsuchiya,T. Nagamoto,Y.Miyamoto,K.Murotani.K, Okishige,K. andTakahashi,N.
    • Journal Title

      Europace

      Volume: 16 Issue: 4 Pages: 511-520

    • DOI

      10.1093/europace/eut265

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multicenter population-based study on the prevalence of early onset dementia in Japan: Vascular dementia as its prominent cause2014

    • Author(s)
      Ikejima C, Ikeda M, Hashimoto M, Ogawa Y, Tanimukai S, Kashibayashi T, Miyanaga K, Yonemura K, Kakuma T,Murotani K and Asada T.
    • Journal Title

      Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences

      Volume: 68 Pages: 216-224

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Web上で動作する高速・ハイブリッドトラヒックシミュレータ2013

    • Author(s)
      四方義昭
    • Journal Title

      尚美学園大学芸術情報学部紀要

      Volume: 22 Pages: 47-60

    • NAID

      110009605581

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Atrioventricular nodal ablation versus antiarrhythmic drugs after permanent pacemaker implantation for bradycardia-tachycardia syndrome2012

    • Author(s)
      Nagamoto,Y, Inage,T, Yoshida,T, Takeuchi,T, Gondo,T, Fukuda,Y, Takii,E, Murotani,K, and Imaizumi,T.
    • Journal Title

      Heart Vessels

      Volume: 27 (2) Issue: 2 Pages: 174-178

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00380-011-0126-4

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assessment of Chronic Pancreatitis: Utility of Whole Pancreas Perfusion with 256-slice CT2012

    • Author(s)
      Arikawa, S. Uchida, M. Kunou, Y. Kaida, H. Uozumi, J. Hayabuchi, N. Okabe, Y. and Murotani, K.
    • Journal Title

      Pancreas

      Volume: 41 Issue: 4 Pages: 535-540

    • DOI

      10.1097/mpa.0b013e3182374fe0

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comparing two diagnostic tests with multiple readers based on categorical measurements on the same patient2012

    • Author(s)
      Aoyama,Y, Murotani,K, Nagata,S and Yanagawa,T.
    • Journal Title

      Sankhya B

      Volume: 74(1) Pages: 44-55

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Routing Strategy of a Prioritized Limited Multi-server Processor-Sharing System2014

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Data Communication Networking
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-28 – 2014-08-30
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A study of the upper limit of human longevity applying extreme value theory to data for oldest old deaths in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama, Kenta Murotani, Yoshiaki Shikata
    • Organizer
      XXVIIth International Biometric Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Florence
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-06 – 2014-07-11
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] An Estimation of the Upper Limit of Human Longevity Based on Data for Oldest-old Deaths in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Hanayama, N.
    • Organizer
      The 3rd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asian Pacific Rim Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Taipei
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-29 – 2014-07-03
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 人口動態調査データに基づく人間の寿命限界の推定2014

    • Author(s)
      華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      応用統計学会2014 年度年会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-22
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 人口動態調査データに基づく人間の寿命限界の推定2014

    • Author(s)
      華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      応用統計学会2014 年度年会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京都立川市
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A STUDY OF THE UPPER LIMIT OF HUMAN LONGEVITY APPLYING EXTREME VALUE THEORY TO DATA FOR OLDEST OLD DEATHS IN JAPAN2014

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama, Kenta Murotani, Yoshiaki Shikata
    • Organizer
      the XXVII International Biometric Conference (IBC) in 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Florence
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Prioritized Limited Round-Robin System with its Performance Analysis2014

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama
    • Organizer
      The 12th INFORMS Telecommunications Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Lisboa
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A study of upper limit of human longevity applying the extreme value theory to data for oldest-old in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama, Kenta Murotani, Yoshiaki Shikata
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics,
    • Place of Presentation
      London
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A discussion of association between the risks on breast and liver cancer for women based on data given by age and period2013

    • Author(s)
      張替勝也,華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      The 59th World Statistics Congress, 25-30 August
    • Place of Presentation
      Hong Kong
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A discussion of the upper limit of human longevity based on study of data for oldest old survivors and deaths in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama, Kenta Murotani, Yoshiaki Shikata
    • Organizer
      The 59th World Statistics Congress, 25-30 August
    • Place of Presentation
      Hong Kong
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 絶滅コホート法を用いた寿命限界推定:生存データによる推定との比較2013

    • Author(s)
      華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      日本計算機統計学会
    • Place of Presentation
      青森県弘前市
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Biomarker search using gene expression databases in a phase III, controlled clinical trial (ACTS-CC) of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer: Results of cluster analysis2013

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Uetake, Toshiaki Ishikawa, Megimi Ishiguro, Kenta Murotani, Shigeyuki Matsui, Kenichi Sugihara, and ACTS-CC study group
    • Organizer
      AACR 104th Annual Meeting 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Washington, DC
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Performance Evaluation of a Limited Round-Robin System2013

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiaki Shikata
    • Organizer
      ICCCNE 2013 : International Conference on Computer and Communication Networks Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 年齢・時代別に観測されたデータの分析による乳癌と肝臓癌の因果関係の検討2013

    • Author(s)
      張替勝也,華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      情報処理学会第75回全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      宮城県仙台市
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 年齢・時代・環境モデルによる日本人の食の嗜好に関するデータの分析2012

    • Author(s)
      華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      日本計算機統計学会第26回大会
    • Place of Presentation
      香川県高松市
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Performance Evaluation of Prioritized Limited Processor-Sharing System2012

    • Author(s)
      Y.Shikata, W.Katagiri, and Y.Takahashi
    • Organizer
      WASET International Conference ICCEL2012
    • Place of Presentation
      Copenhargen, Denmark
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A discussion of the limit of human longevity based on data for oldest-old survivors or deaths2012

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama, Masaaki Sibuya
    • Organizer
      Cooperative Research Symposium Extreme Value Theory and Applications
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Discussion of Association between Risks for Breast and Liver Cancer by Analysing (Age, period)-Tabulated Data2012

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama
    • Organizer
      XXVIth International Biometric Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Kobe, Japan
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Follow-up design for comparing two binary diagnostic tests2012

    • Author(s)
      Kenta Murotani
    • Organizer
      XXVI th International Biometric Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Kobe, Japan
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 超高齢者死亡統計に基づく寿命限界の推定~死因との関連の検討~2012

    • Author(s)
      華山 宣胤,室谷 健太,四方 義昭,渋谷 政昭
    • Organizer
      2012年度 統計関係連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道札幌市
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation of the upper limit of human longevity based on data for oldest old in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Nobutane Hanayama
    • Organizer
      Australasian Applied Statistics Conference 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      Queen's Town, New Zealand
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 年齢・時代別データの分析手法~APCモデルとその代替モデル~2012

    • Author(s)
      華山宣胤
    • Organizer
      科研費(課題番号23340022)シンポジウム「統計的推測とその応用:正則と非正則」
    • Place of Presentation
      東京都港区
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Invited

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Published: 2013-05-31   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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