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Tail risk and intergenerational equity: the axiomatic approach

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24530192
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

SHINOTSUKA Tomoichi  筑波大学, 人文社会系, 教授 (40235552)

Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords世代間衡平 / テール・リスク / 世代効用の無限流列 / 世代間衡平性 / 公理主義 / テールリスク
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The conflict of interest between generations has been getting worse with progress of low birthrate and aging in Japan. An urgent problem in welfare economics is to provide intergenerational ethics that help resolve the intergenerational conflicts. In addition, tail risks are potential factors that could aggravate the intergenerational conflicts. Tail event is referred to as something that occurs with an extremely low probability but entails catastrophic damages when it happens. The Great East Japan Earthquake and climate change arising from global warming are typical examples of tail events. The question of intergenerational equity immediately arises when it comes to tail risk evaluation: the choice of discount rate for future utility is of vital importance for the evaluation. In this study, I consider the problem of the tail risk evaluations such as a climate change or the large-scale earthquake in a framework of welfare economics and social choice theory.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report

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Published: 2013-05-31   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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