| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The numerical weather prediction (NWP) has been steadily improved its accuracy. Instead, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by NWP are not utilized in flood forecasting yet. We developed a new flood forecasting system utilizing regional ensemble prediction system. We applied this system to two typhoon cases and a Baiu frontal torrential rainfall case which caused flood damages in recent years. The system predicted rainfall and discharge better than conventional methods without ensemble prediction system. This implies it has a potential to realize flood forecasting by NWP. However, the forecast accuracy is highly dependent on applied events. Although, one typhoon case showed acceptable forecast accuracy, the flood forecasting for a Baiu frontal case was low performance. It needs persistent evaluation for the goal of operational application.
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