Refine statistical models for earthquakes
| Project/Area Number |
25330052
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
Zhuang Jiancang 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 准教授 (70465920)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
KATO Shogo 統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 准教授 (60468535)
OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (70000213)
KUMAZAWA Takao 統計数理研究所, リスク解析戦略研究センター, 特任研究員 (60649482)
IWATA Takaki 常磐大学, コミュニティ振興学部, 准教授 (30418991)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | ETASモデル / 確率利得 / 非地震性異常 / 分岐クラックモデル / 重み付き最尤推定量 / 残差分析 / 震源メカニズム / 地震断層形状 / 重力異常 / パリミュチュエルギャンブリング評価法 / 最大マグニチュード / Molchanエラー図 / 地下電場信号 / 確率予測 / GPS |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This research is carried out in three directions. 1. Theoretic research: The criticality and stability conditions for a type of more general branching process are studied, providing what constraints should be obey when extending the ETAS model; The branching cracking can be used to explain many features of earthquake source ruptures. 2. Seismicity modelling and statistical inference: ETAS models incorporated with earthquake rupture geometry are developed, based on which the rupture geometry can be inverted from seismicity; Earthquake hypocenter depths are incorporated into a 3D high-resolution ETAS model; weighted likelihood estimates for space-time point processes have been proposed. 3. The precursory information in several kinds of non-seismicity anomalies has validated.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(75 results)
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[Journal Article] Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001-20102014
Author(s)
Han, P., Hattori K., Hirokawa, M., Zhuang, J., Chen, C.-H., Febriani, F., Yamaguchi, H., Yoshino, C., Liu, J.-Y. and Yoshida, S.
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Journal Title
Journal of Geophysical Reseach: Space Physics
Volume: 199
Issue: 6
Pages: 4998-5011
DOI
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Peer Reviewed / Open Access
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[Presentation] Hypocentral ETAS model2015
Author(s)
Zhuang, J.,*, Guo, Y., and Zhou, S.
Organizer
東京大学地震研究所 第6回研究集会「日本における地震発生予測検証実験(CSEP-Japan)」
Place of Presentation
統計数理研究所, 東京都立川市
Year and Date
2015-07-23
Related Report
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[Presentation] Is the 2013 Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake an aftershock of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake on Longmenshan fault, Sichuan, China?2013
Author(s)
Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J.*, and Jiang, C.
Organizer
8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
Place of Presentation
北京大学, 北京市, 中国
Related Report
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[Presentation] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis2013
Author(s)
Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. and Zhuang, J.*
Organizer
8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
Place of Presentation
北京大学, 北京市, 中国
Related Report
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