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A methodological study on regional population analysis by GIS: an application to a support system for municipalities

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25370919
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Human geography
Research InstitutionAoyama Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

INOUE Takashi  青山学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10211749)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Keywords地域人口分析 / 地理情報システム / 小地域統計 / 将来人口推計 / 人口地理学 / 地域人口学 / 人口統計学 / 地域人口論 / GIS / 小地域 / 人口減少 / 高齢化 / 過疎対策 / 小地域人口分析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The results of this study are summarized into the following two points: First, the author proposed a new method for smoothing small area demographics. Since small area demographics are generally very unstable, population projections based on these demographics have a risk of generating extremely huge values. However, the new method can avoid such a risk. Second, the author developed the original website “The Web System of Small Area Population Projection for the Whole Japan” and released it in July 2016. All users of this system can freely download data by municipality regarding 2015-60 population projected by sex and 5-year age group on a per small area basis (cho-cho and aza, about 217 thousand areas).

Report

(5 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (25 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results) Book (3 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Generalization of the Census Survival Ratio Method2017

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Working Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research

      Volume: 2017-1 Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 全国の小地域別将来人口推計に関するウェブシステムの開発について2016

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Journal Title

      エストレーラ

      Volume: No.262 Pages: 2-9

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A new method of estimating small area demographics using population potential2014

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Working Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Aoyama Gakuin University

      Volume: 2014-3 Pages: 1-16

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] On the mathematical formulation of the cohort cumulative social increase ratio2014

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Working Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Aoyama Gakuin University

      Volume: 2014-4 Pages: 1-18

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 都市の規模別分布に関する統計モデル―順位規模法則と対数正規分布モデルの適合度の比較―2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Journal Title

      統計

      Volume: 65 Pages: 9-15

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 人口移動モデルと国際結婚移動2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Journal Title

      人口問題研究

      Volume: 70 Pages: 264-274

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A new measure of accessibility refrecting population distribition2013

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Journal Title

      Working Paper Series, Institute of Economics, Aoyama Gakuin University

      Volume: 2013-2 Pages: 1-13

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Two-Step Smoothing Method for Small Area Demographics and Its Application to the Long-Term Population Projection2017

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Organizer
      2017 Population and Public Policy Conferece
    • Place of Presentation
      Houston, US
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-07
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Formulation of the Cohort Cumulative Social Increase Ratio and Its Application to Japan Census Data2016

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Organizer
      1st International Conference on Geographies of Migration and Mobilities
    • Place of Presentation
      Loughborough University, UK.
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 「全国小地域別将来人口推計システム」の開発とウェブ公開について2015

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      CSIS DAYS 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学柏の葉キャンパス駅前サテライト
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-19
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Development of the Internet GIS System of Long-Term Small Area Population Projection for Japan2015

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Organizer
      The 2015 International Geographical Union Moscow Regional Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-20
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A New Method of Estimating Small Area Demographics: An Approach Using Population Potential2015

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Population Geographies
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Queensland, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2015-07-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 小地域人口統計の平滑化に関する新しい手法の開発―小地域別将来人口推計システムの構築に向けて―2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      CSIS DAYS 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学柏の葉キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 小地域人口統計の平滑化に関する汎用的手法の開発とその適用2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      第23回地理情報システム学会研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      中部大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-07
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 小地域人口統計の分析手法―都市・防災・福祉計画の視点から―2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      日本人口学会第66回大会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-13
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The changing patterns of regional population in postwar Japan: an explanation using the cohort cumulative social increase ratios.

    • Author(s)
      Takashi Inoue
    • Organizer
      International Geographical Union 2013 Kyoto Regional Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      京都国際会館
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 「ポスト人口転換期」の人口移動

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      人口学研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      中央大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 新しい人口集積地画定法とその応用

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      CSIS DAYS 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学柏キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 小地域人口統計の推定に関する新しい手法―人口ポテンシャル概念を用いて―

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝
    • Organizer
      日本人口学会東日本地域部会
    • Place of Presentation
      帝京大学霞が関キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] The Frontiers of Applied Demography, Applied Demography Series 92017

    • Author(s)
      Swanson, D. A., Inoue, T. et. al.
    • Total Pages
      517
    • Publisher
      Springer International Publishing
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] ポスト人口転換期の日本 人口学ライブラリー172016

    • Author(s)
      佐藤龍三郎,金子隆一,井上 孝 他
    • Total Pages
      230
    • Publisher
      原書房
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 首都圏の高齢化2014

    • Author(s)
      井上 孝・渡辺真知子
    • Total Pages
      224
    • Publisher
      原書房
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report 2013 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 全国小地域別将来人口推計システム

    • URL

      http://arcg.is/1LqC6qN

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] English version of the above website

    • URL

      http://arcg.is/1GkdZTX

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 上記の英語バージョン

    • URL

      http://arcg.is/1GkdZTX

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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