Numerical study on diagnosis of environmental factor affecting tropical cyclone intensity

• Project/Area Number: 25400461
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute (2014-2015); The University of Tokyo (2013)
• Principal Investigator: Sawada Masahiro 気象庁気象研究所, 台風研究部, 研究官 (90466524)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): Yamaguchi Munehiko 気象庁気象研究所, 台風研究部, 研究官 (80595405) ; Ito Kosuke 琉球大学, 理学部, 助教 (10634123) ; Miyamoto Yoshiaki 独立行政法人理化学研究所, 計算科学研究機構, 基礎科学特別研究員 (90612185)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 台風 / 防災 / 予測可能性 / 数値予報 / 最適化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

To diagnose impacts of environmental factor on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, forecast experiments for 2800 cases have been conducted using coupled hurricane intensity prediction system (CHIPS). Environmental parameter were generated from a forecast data by Japan meteorological agency (JMA) global spectral model (GSM). By comparing the forecast results, CHIPS is lowest errors among three models and the largest correlation coefficient of central pressure tendency. This indicates TC intensity is largely controlled by environmental factor. Through the sensitivity experiments, vertical shear is a largest impact on TC intensity forecast, second is ocean mixed layer depth in a framework of CHIPS. From a point of a practical view, we evaluate the intensity forecast skill of a consensus by above three models. The consensus has comparable or less forecast error than the JMA official forecast, which will contribute the improvement of intensity forecast.

Research Products

• [Presentation] Tropical cyclone research-to-operation activities at MRI/JMA (2016)
  • Author(s): Munehiko Yamaguchi, Masahiro Sawada, Udai Shimada, Hiromi Ohwada, Ryo Oyama, Kazumasa Aonashi, Kozo Okamoto, Takahito Igarashi, Naohisa Koide, Masayuki Yoshimatsu, Kosuke Ito, Yoshiaki Miyamoto
  • Organizer: Typhoon seminar 2015
  • Place of Presentation: 東京都、大手町、気象庁
  • Year and Date: 2016-01-06
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 簡易軸対称台風モデルCHIPSの台風強度予報誤差とその利用法 (2015)
  • Author(s): 沢田雅洋，伊藤耕介，山口宗彦，宮本佳明
  • Organizer: 2015年度気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都府、京都、京都テルサ
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-28
• [Presentation] RSMC Tokyo 台風強度予報誤差データベースの構築とMPIを用いた補正 (2015)
  • Author(s): 伊藤耕介，仲田真理子，宮里結衣，宮本育利，善村夏実
  • Organizer: 2015年度気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都府、京都、京都テルサ
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-28
• [Presentation] Influence of horizontal resolution on tropical cyclone intensity using ensemble downscaling simulations (2015)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sawada
  • Organizer: AOGS2015
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore, Suntec City
  • Year and Date: 2015-08-03
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] アンサンブル実験を用いた台風強度の水平解像度依存性の調査 (2015)
  • Author(s): 沢田雅洋
  • Organizer: 2015年度気象学会春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 茨城県、つくば市、つくば国際会議場
  • Year and Date: 2015-05-21
• [Presentation] 軸対称台風モデル JCHIPS を用いた台風の強度予報実験 (2014)
  • Author(s): 沢田雅洋・伊藤耕介・宮本佳明・山口宗彦
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2014年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡国際会議場
  • Year and Date: 2014-10-21 – 2014-10-23