• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Influenza epidemic prediction using a dynamical model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25730181
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Life / Health / Medical informatics
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

SAITO Masaya  統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 特任准教授 (00470047)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Keywords感染症数理モデル / データ同化 / インフルエンザ流行予測 / インフルエンザ / ベイズ統計
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research attempted to develop an influenza epidemic prediction model in which transmission dynamics is incorporated aiming at improving the operated alert system based on statistical model. Our system is based on coupled SIR model where each component corresponds to each prefecture of Japan. Although the coupled model outperforms a set of independent SIR models in the sense that the confidence interval is narrowed, there is no significant difference in the mean. Therefore I have concluded that the planned approach may not contribute to the improvement of prediction. We also have tried to apply our approach to another disease, rubella, and showed that 2012/13 minor epidemic is reproduced.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All 2016 2015 2014 2013

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (11 results) (of which Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      Masaya M. Saito, Seiya Imoto, Rui Yamaguchi, Masahiro Kami, Haruka Nakada, Hiroki Sato, Satoru Miyano, Tomoyuki Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Biosciences

      Volume: 246 Pages: 47-54

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Enhancement of Collective Immunity in Tokyo Metropolitan Area by Selective Vaccination against an Emerging Influenza Pandemic2013

    • Author(s)
      Masaya M. Saito mail, Seiya Imoto, Rui Yamaguchi, Masaharu Tsubokura, Masahiro Kami, Haruka Nakada, Hiroki Sato, Satoru Miyano, Tomoyuki Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 8 Issue: 9 Pages: 1-1

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0072866

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 空間構造を考慮した風しん介入政策の評価2016

    • Author(s)
      斎藤 正也
    • Organizer
      複雑ネットワークウィンターセッション2016
    • Place of Presentation
      水戸
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-08
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Spatial optimization of vaccine distribution against rubella: A case study in Japan2015

    • Author(s)
      Masaya Saito
    • Organizer
      Innovative Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-29
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 大規模感染症シミュレーションの近年の動向2015

    • Author(s)
      斎藤 正也
    • Organizer
      科研費研究集会・生命科学データ解析の方法論と健康科学への応用
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-17
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2013年風しん流行における選択的ワクチン接種の費用対効果2015

    • Author(s)
      斎藤 正也
    • Organizer
      日本応用数理学会2015年年会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-09
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] インフルエンザ流行対策への計算機シミュレーション活用へ向けての取り組み2015

    • Author(s)
      斎藤正也, 井元清哉, 山口類, 佐藤弘樹, 中田はる佳, 上昌広, 坪倉正治, 宮野 悟, 樋口知之
    • Organizer
      日本公衆衛生学会・若手プロジェクトシンポジウム「感染症の数理モデル研究の紹介」
    • Place of Presentation
      ホテルアバローム紀の国, 和歌山
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Estimation of interaction between regions in an influenza epidemic in Japan using a multi-compartment SIR model2014

    • Author(s)
      M.M.Saito, S.Imoto, R.Yamaguchi, S.Miyano, T.Higuchi
    • Organizer
      研究集会「感染症数理モデルの実用化と産業及び政策での活用のための新たな展開」
    • Place of Presentation
      JR博多シティ会議場, 福岡
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-01 – 2014-10-03
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 連結 SIR モデルを使った日本のインフルエンザ流行における地域間相互作用の推定2014

    • Author(s)
      斎藤正也, 井元清哉, 山口類, 宮野悟, 樋口知之
    • Organizer
      第63回理論応用力学講演会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京工業大学, 東京
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-26 – 2014-09-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation in multi-compartment SIR model2014

    • Author(s)
      M.M.Saito, S.Imoto, R.Yamaguchi, S.Miyano, T.Higuchi
    • Organizer
      7th international conference on fusion "FUSION2014"
    • Place of Presentation
      Salamanca, Spain
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-08 – 2014-07-10
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation of outer-regional effect on 2009/2010 influenza epidemic in Japan2014

    • Author(s)
      M.M.Saito, S.Imoto, R.Yamaguchi, S.Miyano, T.Higuchi
    • Organizer
      The 23rd South Taiwan Statistics Conference and 2014 Chinese Institute of Probability and Statistics Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      National Dong Hua Univ., Hualien, Taiwan
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-27 – 2014-06-28
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2009年の日本におけるインフルエンザ動向における地域間相互作用の影響2013

    • Author(s)
      斎藤 正也、井元 清哉、山口 類、佐藤 弘樹、中田 はる佳、上 昌広、坪倉 正治、宮野 悟、樋口 知之
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] stimation of Abrupt Changes in Sentinel Observation Data of Influenza Epidemics in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Masaya M. Saito, Seiya Imoto, Rui Yamaguchi, Satoru Miyano, Tomoyuki Higuchi
    • Organizer
      16th conference of Information Fusion
    • Place of Presentation
      トルコ・イスタンブール
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 現象数理学入門 (第5章を執筆)2014

    • Author(s)
      斎藤正也・樋口知之 (三村昌康・編)
    • Total Pages
      203
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi