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Effects of Uncertainty in Advertising Competition: Modeling and Empirical Analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25870821
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Commerce
Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

TAKAHASHI Kei  統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 特任助教 (70595280)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords広告 / 広告競争 / 微分ゲーム / 有限要素法 / 状態空間モデル / 心理的効果 / 不確実性 / 競争 / ゲーム / リアル・オプション
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study conducts theoretical and empirical analyses on uncertainty of advertising effect with advertising competition.
In theoretical side, we formulate our model via Vidal-Wolfe type model, introducing uncertainty on its advertising effect. We solve this model as close-loop Nash equilibrium (amount of optimal adverting input and net profit) with numerical methods. Then we show that the optimal control rule is Bang-Bang control.
In empirical side, we estimate magnitude of uncertainty of advertising effect. We conduct its estimation after seasonal effect is removed by DECOMP. After that, we find that magnitude of uncertainty of advertising effect is greater than one of financial market.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2016 2015 2014 2013

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (13 results)

  • [Journal Article] Inspection of the Validity in the frequent shoppers program by using particle filter2016

    • Author(s)
      S. Suzuki and K. Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Operations Research Proceedings 2015

      Volume: 2015

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Endogenous Determination of Element Length on Financial Option Pricing with the Finite Element Method2015

    • Author(s)
      K. Takahashi and T. Horiuchi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Japan Association for Management Systems

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.14790/ijams.7.1

    • NAID

      130005118176

    • ISSN
      1884-2089, 2188-2460
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A new method for parameter estimation of the GNL model using realcoded GA2015

    • Author(s)
      Y. Iida, K. Takahashi and T. Ohno
    • Journal Title

      Operations Research Proceedings

      Volume: 2013

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A new method for parameter estimation of the GNL model using real coded GA2014

    • Author(s)
      Y. Iida, K. Takahashi and T. Ohno:
    • Journal Title

      Operations Research Proceedings

      Volume: 2013 Pages: 209-215

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] EXPLAINING PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS IN INCONSISTENT WITH UTILITY MAXIMIZATION VIA THE GEV MODEL2014

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓, 大野髙裕
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan

      Volume: 57 Issue: 0 Pages: 67-91

    • DOI

      10.15807/torsj.57.67

    • NAID

      130004712717

    • ISSN
      1349-8940, 2188-8280
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An efficient method for option pricing with finite elements: an endogenous element length approach2014

    • Author(s)
      T. Horiuchi, K. Takahashi and T. Ohno
    • Journal Title

      Operations Research Proceedings

      Volume: 2012 Pages: 203-208

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_30

    • ISBN
      9783319007946, 9783319007953
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] GNL とエントロピー・モデルの等価性:非集計レベルの等価性2013

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓, 大野高裕
    • Journal Title

      日本経営工学 会論文誌

      Volume: 64-1 Pages: 9-20

    • NAID

      10031186811

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 消費者の動的な心理的効果を考慮した非集計アトリビューション・モデル2015

    • Author(s)
      酒向海, 高橋啓
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会2015 年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-28
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] pMCMC フィルタによる間欠需要品の逐次予測2015

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓
    • Organizer
      SSI2015
    • Place of Presentation
      函館
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-18
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Particle Filter によるFSP 政策の有効性の検証2015

    • Author(s)
      鈴木槙将, 高橋啓
    • Organizer
      SSI2015
    • Place of Presentation
      函館
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-18
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] How to achieve conversion: modeling individual behavior in multiple online advertising with psychological effects2015

    • Author(s)
      K. Sakou and K. Takahashi
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Operations Research 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Inspection of the Validity in the frequent shoppers program by using particle filter2015

    • Author(s)
      S. Suzuki and K. Takahashi
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Operations Research 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 粒子フィルタによる動的個人ベースでのFSP 政策有効性の検証2015

    • Author(s)
      鈴木槙将, 高橋啓
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会2015 年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      八王子
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-16
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Frequent Shoppers Programの個人別影響分析2015

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓, 鈴木慎将
    • Organizer
      パーティクルフィルタ研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      宮崎
    • Year and Date
      2015-02-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 状態空間モデルを用いた検索連動型広告における広告効果の予測2014

    • Author(s)
      田中日瑛, 高橋啓, 大野髙裕
    • Organizer
      SSI2014
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-21 – 2014-11-23
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Web サイト情報からの中古車販売タイミングの予測2014

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓, 梶佑輔
    • Organizer
      SSI2014
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-21 – 2014-11-23
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] トランクィリティに対する注意2014

    • Author(s)
      高橋啓
    • Organizer
      第53 回日本経営システム学会全国研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      愛知
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-18 – 2014-10-19
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Closed-loop Nash equilibria strategy under uncertainty of advertising effect in advertising competition2014

    • Author(s)
      Y. Iida, K. Takahashi and T. Ohno:
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Operations Research 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Aachen, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-02 – 2014-09-04
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A new method for parameter estimation of the GNL model using realcoded GA2013

    • Author(s)
      Y. Iida, K. Takahashi and T. Ohno
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Operations Research 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Rotterdam, Netherlands
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Optimal design of buyback contract in the magazine industry2013

    • Author(s)
      K. Takahashi, Ko Nagai and T. Ohno
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Operations Research 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Rotterdam, Netherlands
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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