| Project/Area Number |
26285043
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic theory
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| Research Institution | Waseda University (2016-2017)
University of Tsukuba (2014-2015) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
秋山 英三 筑波大学, システム情報系, 教授 (40317300)
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| Research Collaborator |
HANAKI Nobuyuki ソフィアアンティポリス大学, 経済経営学部, 教授
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥15,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,510,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
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| Keywords | 帰納的学習 / 帰納的ゲーム理論 / 資産取引実験 / 資産価格バブル / 高次認識 / 経験 / 期待形成 / バブル / 価格予測 / 認識論 / 経済理論 / ゲーム理論 / 学習理論 / 認識と意思決定 / 金融政策 / 量的緩和 / 資産価格 / 金融論 / 実験経済学 / ゲーム論理 / 動的認識論理 / 構造学習 / 国際研究者交流 / 認識 / 長期契約 / 経済実験 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this project is to construct inductive learning theory to describe learning process of bounded rational decision makers, which is based on their experiences. We focused on experimental asset markets, and analyzed their behavioral data for the following purposes: (i) Classification of subjects’ rationality, (ii) Extraction of effects of their higher order beliefs, (iii) Their predictions of future prices, and (iv) Effects of their heterogeneous experiences. As a result, we found that the bubble of asset prices is facilitated by heterogeneous cognitive abilities, and is due to subjects’ higher order beliefs. Furthermore, we also observed that the experienced subjects in experimental markets adaptively learn price paths in their present markets. In addition, we show a new methodology of experimental assets markets to control subjects’ incentive when they have more incentives.
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