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Pre-modern Japan's GDP per capita: estimates, analysis and international comparisons

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26285075
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypePartial Multi-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic history
Research InstitutionHitotsubashi University

Principal Investigator

SAITO Osamu  一橋大学, 名誉教授 (40051867)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 深尾 京司  一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (30173305)
攝津 斉彦  武蔵大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (30613393)
尾高 煌之助  一橋大学, 名誉教授 (90017658)
尾関 学  岡山大学, 大学院社会文化科学研究科, 准教授 (90345455)
Research Collaborator BASSINO Jena-Pascal  Lyons Institute of East Asian Studies, Institut d' Asie Orientale, Professor
BROADBERRY Steve  University of Oxford, Nuffield College, Professor
TAKASHIMA Masanori  一橋大学, 経済研究所, 研究機関研究員
SCHREUERS Geert  一橋大学, 大学院・経済学研究科
Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥6,110,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,410,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Keywords経済史 / 日本経済史 / 歴史的国民所得論 / 一人当たり国内総生産 / 人口推計 / 都市化 / 部門シェア / 一人当り国内総生産 / 国際比較
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The aim of this research was to make fresh estimates of pre-Meiji Japan’s GDP per capita and to conduct a comparative analysis on the basis of the new evidence. Based on new estimates for population in 1600 and a new estimation methodology, we have set out a new series of GDP per capita and its sectoral breakdowns for the period between 1600 and 1874, which will replace the estimates by A. Maddison. Our estimates in 1990 international dollars for 1600, 1721 and 1874 are $659, $669 and $1,013. They are 27%, 17% and 34% larger than Maddison’s respectively. While Maddison’s tended to show that Tokugawa-period growth was monotonic, our estimates are more articulated: the 1600-1721 period saw no increase but the 1721-1874 period exhibited a little stronger growth, while structural change was more pronounced in the first than in the second period. In an international perspective, Japan’s early modern performance was modest and steady but remained so even in the late 19th century.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • 2014 Annual Research Report

Research Products

(52 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (24 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Peer Reviewed: 11 results,  Open Access: 6 results) Presentation (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 13 results,  Invited: 5 results) Book (5 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Cambridge University(英国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] l’ENS de Lyon(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 復旦大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Cambridge University(英国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 人口転換の日韓比較2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修
    • Journal Title

      日本學士院紀要

      Volume: 第71巻3号 Pages: 5-19

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 1600年の全国人口:17世紀人口経済史再構築の試み2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修
    • Journal Title

      社会経済史学

      Volume: -

    • NAID

      130007847259

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 人口と都市化2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修・高島正憲
    • Journal Title

      中林真幸編『岩波講座日本経済の歴史 第1巻 中世』所収,岩波書店 (図書所収論文)

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 人口・家族・生業2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修・高島正憲
    • Journal Title

      中林真幸編『岩波講座日本経済の歴史 第2巻 近世』所収,岩波書店 (図書所収論文)

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector outputs in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japanm 1600-18742016

    • Author(s)
      Osamu Saito and M. Takashima
    • Journal Title

      European Review of Economic History

      Volume: 20-3 Pages: 368-386

    • DOI

      10.1093/ereh/hew007

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Population and economy: towards a conceptual framework for pre-transitional demography2016

    • Author(s)
      O. Saito
    • Journal Title

      K. Matthijs, S. Hin, H. Matsuo, and J. Kok (eds.), The Future of Historical Demography: Upside down and inside out (Leuven: Acco Publishers)図書所収論文

      Volume: - Pages: 85-88

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A very brief history of Japan’s economic and social history research2016

    • Author(s)
      O. Saito
    • Journal Title

      Jahrbuch fur Europaische Uberseegeschichte

      Volume: 15 Pages: 193-204

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] China’s Growth Slowdown: lessons from Japan’s Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan, the USA and Germany2016

    • Author(s)
      Fukao, Kyoji and Tangjun Yuan
    • Journal Title

      China & World Economy

      Volume: vol.24, Issue 5 Pages: 122-146

    • DOI

      10.1111/cwe.12177

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 明治期経済成長の再検討─産業構造、労働生産性と地域間格差─2016

    • Author(s)
      攝津斉彦、Jean-Pascal Bassino、深尾京司
    • Journal Title

      一橋大学経済研究所編『経済研究』

      Volume: 67巻3号 Pages: 193-214

    • NAID

      120006492377

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 大正初期の山梨県町村是による『村民所得』の推計2016

    • Author(s)
      尾関学
    • Journal Title

      経済史研究(大阪経済大学日本経済史研究所)

      Volume: 19 Pages: 41-58

    • NAID

      110010006809

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Climate, famine, and population in Japanese history: a Long-term perspective2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O.
    • Journal Title

      B.L. Batten and P.C. Brown, eds., Environment and Society in the Japanese Islands: From prehistory to the present, Corvallis: Oregon State University Press (図書所収論文)

      Volume: ─ Pages: 213-229

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Population, urbanisation and farm output in early modern Japan, 1600-1874: a review of data and benchmark estimates2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O., and M. Takashima
    • Journal Title

      Hitotsubashi University RCESR Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: no.DP15-3 Pages: 1-19

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-18742015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O., and M. Takashima
    • Journal Title

      Hitotsubashi University RCESR Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: no.DP15-4 Pages: 1-25

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 近代経済成長は労働にとって何だったのか?2015

    • Author(s)
      尾高煌之助
    • Journal Title

      大原社会問題研究所雑誌

      Volume: no.681 Pages: 45-56

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Japan and the Great Divergence, 725-18742015

    • Author(s)
      Jean-Pascal Bassino, Stephen N Broadberry, Kyoji Fukao, Bishnupriya Gupta and Masanori Takashima
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Economic History, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna

      Volume: No.10569 Pages: 1-40

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Agricultural Surveys in Japan and England2015

    • Author(s)
      Chiaki Yamamoto and Manabu Ozeki
    • Journal Title

      K. Kondo ed., History in British History:Proceedings of the Seventh Anglo-Japanese Conference of Historians

      Volume: ─ Pages: 141-165

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Growth and Inequality in the Great and Little Divergence Debate: A Japanese Perspective2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, Osamu
    • Journal Title

      Economic History Review

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 399-419

    • DOI

      10.1111/ehr.12071

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Climate, famine, and population in Japanese history: a long-term perspective2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, Osamu
    • Journal Title

      Environment and Society in the Japanese Islands: From prehistory to the present, Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University Press (図書所収論文)

      Volume: - Pages: 213-229

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 近世のGDPを計る2015

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修
    • Journal Title

      ECO-FORUM

      Volume: 第30巻3号 Pages: 11-17

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 1874-2008年における日本の地域間所得格差と産業構造2015

    • Author(s)
      深尾京司
    • Journal Title

      ECO-FORUM

      Volume: Vol.30, No.3 Pages: 18-22

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Aging, Interregional Income Inequality, and Industrial Structure: An Empirical Analysis Based on the R-JIP Database and the R-LTES Database2015

    • Author(s)
      Fukao, Kyoji and Tatsuji, Makino
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

      Volume: 15-E-022, Pages: 1-37

    • NAID

      40020560329

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 日本の経済発展と地域間格差―長期的視点から―2015

    • Author(s)
      攝津 斉彦
    • Journal Title

      ECO-FORUM

      Volume: 第30巻3号 Pages: 23-30

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Was modern Japan a developmental state?2014

    • Author(s)
      Saito, Osamu
    • Journal Title

      State Building and Development, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge (図書所収論文)

      Volume: - Pages: 23-45

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ミャンマー工業化論:序論的考察2014

    • Author(s)
      尾高煌之助
    • Journal Title

      一橋大学経済研究所 PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: No.56 Pages: 1-57

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Population Densities and Sectoral Shares of Output and Occupations in Early Modern Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Tokihiko Settsu (with Osamu Saito and Masanori Takashima)
    • Organizer
      European Social Science History Conference (ESSHC)
    • Place of Presentation
      Valencia, Spain
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-31
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Growth and inequality in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O.
    • Organizer
      HIAS One-day Workshop on Economic Development in East Asia, HIAS
    • Place of Presentation
      Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-14
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] By-employment and Economic Growth: A Case of Pre-war Japan and International Comparison2016

    • Author(s)
      Tokihiko Settsu (with Osamu Saito)
    • Organizer
      Seminaire - Institut d'Asie Orientale, ENS de Lyon
    • Place of Presentation
      Lyon, France
    • Year and Date
      2016-02-25
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting Meiji Japan's Economic Miracle: The Structural and Regional Dimensions of Productivity Growth (1874-1909)2016

    • Author(s)
      Tokihiko Settsu (with Kyoji Fukao and Jean-Pascal Bassino)
    • Organizer
      Quantitative History Seminar in Cambridge University
    • Place of Presentation
      Cambridge, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-02-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Making sense of 'deversity in development': economic development and structural change in the labour force since 17002016

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O.
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, Kyoto, Kyoto
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The Structural Causes of Japan’s Low TFP Grows2016

    • Author(s)
      Fukao, Kyoji
    • Organizer
      the Seminar of Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
    • Place of Presentation
      Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, USA
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Population Densities and Sectoral Shares of Output and Occupations in Early Modern Japan2016

    • Author(s)
      Osamu Saito, Masanori Takashima and Tokihiko Settsu
    • Organizer
      European Social Science History Conference (ESSHC) in Valencia
    • Place of Presentation
      Valencia, Spain
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Long-term perspective on by-employment, sectoral labour productivity and economic growth in Japan: 1600-19402016

    • Author(s)
      Tokihiko Settsu
    • Organizer
      Fifth Asian Historical Economics Conference in Seoul
    • Place of Presentation
      Seoul, Korea
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 家の経済と国の経済―汐見三郎の研究から2015

    • Author(s)
      尾関学
    • Organizer
      経済統計学会第59回
    • Place of Presentation
      北海学園大学(札幌市、北海道)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-12
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Manufacturing growth and the size distribution of industrial workers: Germany and Japan compared2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O. (with Y. Tanaka)
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, Kyoto, Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-07
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Regional convergence in labor productivity during the Japanese manufacturing catch-up, 1909-19402015

    • Author(s)
      Tokihiko Settsu (with Kyoji Fukao and Jean-Pascal Bassino)
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, Kyoto, Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Population densities and sectoral output shares in early modern Japan2015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O. (with M. Takashima)
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, Kyoto, Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Making sense of ‘diversity in development’: economic development and structural change in the labour force since 17002015

    • Author(s)
      Saito, O.
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, Kyoto, Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-03
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Revisiting Meiji Japan’s Economic Miracle: Evidence from Sectoral Prefecture-Level GDP Estimates (1874, 1890, and 1909)2015

    • Author(s)
      Bassino, Jean-Pascal, Kyoji Fukao and Tokihiko Settsu
    • Organizer
      XVIIth World Economic History Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto International Conference Center, kyoto, Kyoto
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-03
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ミャンマー経済の昨日,今日,明日2015

    • Author(s)
      尾高煌之助
    • Organizer
      JICA研究所公開セミナー『ミャンマー経済の可能性とJICAの役割』
    • Place of Presentation
      JICA(市ヶ谷・東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-27
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-18742014

    • Author(s)
      Saito, Osamu
    • Organizer
      the Conference on Accounting for the Great Divergence
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Warwick (Venice, Italy)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 近世日本の国内総生産:マディソン推計改訂の試み2014

    • Author(s)
      高島正憲
    • Organizer
      社会経済史学会第83回全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      同志社大学(京都市、京都府)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Structural Causes of Japan’s Lost Decades2014

    • Author(s)
      Kyoji Fukao, Kenta Ikeuchi, YoungGak Kim, HyeogUg Kwon, Tatsuji Makino, Miho Takizawa
    • Organizer
      the Third World KLEMS Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      JP Tower Hall & Conference (千代田区、東京)
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-19 – 2014-05-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Changing Occupational Structure and Sectoral Labour Productivity Differentials in Japan's Economic Growth before World War II2014

    • Author(s)
      Settsu, Tokihiko
    • Organizer
      10th European Social Science History Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Myanmar Economy, Its Past, Present and Prospects2015

    • Author(s)
      Odaka, Konosuke
    • Total Pages
      239
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 戦前期農村の消費――概念と構造――2015

    • Author(s)
      尾関学
    • Total Pages
      208
    • Publisher
      御茶の水書房
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 新版 比較史の遠近法2015

    • Author(s)
      斎藤修
    • Total Pages
      243
    • Publisher
      書籍工房早山
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Myanmar economy, its past, present and prospects2015

    • Author(s)
      Odaka, Konosuke
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Regional Inequality and Industrial Structure in Japan: 1874-20082015

    • Author(s)
      Fukao, Kyoji, Jean-Pascal Bassino, Tatsuji Makino, Ralph Paprzycki, Tokihiko Settsu, Masanori Takashima, and Joji Tokui
    • Total Pages
      368
    • Publisher
      Maruzen Publishing Co., Ltd.
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2022-02-16  

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