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A trial for calculating the seismic risk only from severe earthquake disaster

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26330056
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionAssociation for the Development of Earthquake Prediction

Principal Investigator

Matsu'ura Ritsuko S.  公益財団法人地震予知総合研究振興会, その他部局等, 部長 (70462934)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 岩田 貴樹  常磐大学, コミュニティ振興学部, 准教授 (30418991)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) TSUBAKI Hiroe  統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (30155436)
Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords歴史地震 / 地震活動 / 地震リスク / 地震ハザード / 激甚災害 / リスクマップツール / 近世以降400年間の震度統計 / ハザードマップ / 地震災害リスク / 激甚地震災害 / 関東地方の被害地震カタログ / 近代以降の被害地震カタログ / 中小地震との区分
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The current Japanese earthquake hazard map overestimated earthquake hazards than it actually was, except for the short period immediately after the 2011 big earthquake. Since Japanese infrastructures are strong enough, we can focus only on the large intensities to estimate seismic risk. We examined a new method to estimate appropriate seismic hazards for Japan. It was effective to estimate the seismic intensities by a new empirical formula that can estimate the seismic intensity on the surface directly from a given distance, size, and the type of an earthquake. The distribution function with the upward convex for the seismic intensity frequency was also useful. Our result on hazard estimation will be expanded toward a risk map tool, which shows the estimated damage on a map from the various risk factors located on the map, instead of a single estimation for only one scenario for a certain source.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A short history of Japanese historical seismology: past and the present2017

    • Author(s)
      Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura
    • Journal Title

      GeoScience Letters

      Volume: 4 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40562-017-0069-4

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 地球潮汐と地震活動との相関を用いた地震活動予測2015

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 63 Pages: 129-144

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Significant Decrease of Seismicity in the Northeastern Margin of the Japan Sea after the Mega Thrust Event on Mar. 11, 20112017

    • Author(s)
      Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ
    • Year and Date
      2017-05-24
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Past and the Present State of Japanese Historical Seismology2016

    • Author(s)
      Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geoscience Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Beijing, China
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-01
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Improved Estimation of Temporal Variation in Earthquake Detectability with Time-dependent Smoothness Constraint2016

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      Seismological Society of America 2016 Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Rino, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-21
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Significant Relative Quiescence along the western end part of Kuril subduction zone more than 5 years2015

    • Author(s)
      松浦 律子
    • Organizer
      9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
    • Place of Presentation
      Potsdam, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 関東地方の近世以降400 年間の被害地震について2015

    • Author(s)
      松浦 律子
    • Organizer
      (公社)日本地球惑星科学連合2015大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-27
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2018-03-22  

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