Causation between various earthquake precursors and an earthquake on the critical phenomena

• Project/Area Number: 26350483
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Uyeda Seiya 東京大学, 地震研究所, 名誉教授 (60011459)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 鴨川 仁 東京学芸大学, 教育学部, 准教授 (00329111) ; 上嶋 誠 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (70242154)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 地震 / 臨界現象 / ナチュラル・タイム / 地震先行現象

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigated how to identify the onset of critical state before large earthquakes, by applying the natural time analysis method, which is useful for analysis of critical phenomena, to the time series of seismicity. For large earthquakes in Japan, we found it was possible by this method to identify the time of entry to the precursory stage, i.e. the beginning of the critical state
. The regions entering the critical state were located around the epicenters of the impending large earthquakes. In addition, we can be justified to consider that the critical state was found starting about two months before the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake, which was coincident with the appearance of other precursory phenomena.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] アテネ大学物理学科(ギリシャ)
• [Journal Article] Seismicity prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (2016)
  • Author(s): K. Nanjo, J. Izutsu, Y. Orihara, N. Furuse, S. Togo, N. Nitta, T. Okada, R. Tanaka, M. Kamogawa, T. Nagao
  • Journal Title: Earth Planet Space Volume: 68:187 Pages: 1-10
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-016-0558-2
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Survey of Well Water Anomaly around Sanriku Region in Japan Preceding the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2016)
  • Author(s): 織原義明, 鴨川仁
  • Journal Title: BSSJ Volume: 69 Issue: 0 Pages: 31-34
  • DOI: 10.4294/zisin.69.31
  • NAID: 130005433828
  • ISSN: 0037-1114, 1883-9029, 2186-599X
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Current affairs in earthquake prediction in Japan (2015)
  • Author(s): Seiya Uyeda
  • Journal Title: J. Asian Earth Sci. Volume: 114 Pages: 431-434
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2015.07.006
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Spatiotemporal variation of seismicity before major earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the epicentral locations (2015)
  • Author(s): Sarlis, N. V., E. S. Skordas, P. A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, and S. Uyeda
  • Journal Title: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. Volume: 112 Pages: 986-989
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422893112
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Book] Microsatellites observing atmospheric and space electricity for the science of serious natural disasters: A Challenge to their mitigations, Innovative Ideas on Micro/Nano Satellite Missions and Systems (2017)
  • Author(s): Togo, S., K. Miyata, H. Nitta, S. Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Okada, Y. Suzuki, Y. Orihara, and M. Kamogawa
  • Total Pages: 218
  • Publisher: Technologies and Applications