| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
|
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigate the interdependence between pricing and expectations. We study not only the ways in which traders' thoughts determine asset prices, but also the feedback process from prices to expectations. In our laboratory market, subjects are asked to predict the number of balls in a jar and trade an asset whose value is equal to that number. Our asset market is similar to futures markets in that transactions are eventually settled at an asset value. Subjects alternately repeat this process of guessing and transacting.
We find a downward bias in subjects' predictions, which leads to lower prices in the market. Subjects’s experiences in our laboratory markets have no systematic effect on the accuracy of predictions, but make them less heterogenous. Our subjects are likely to revise their predictions with reference to market prices and adjust them to an average price level. Prices often show a good convergence to an equilibrium price level.
|
