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Quantifying the transmission dynamics using illness onset data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 26700028
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)

Allocation TypePartial Multi-year Fund
Research Field Life / Health / Medical informatics
Research InstitutionHokkaido University (2016)
The University of Tokyo (2014-2015)

Principal Investigator

NISHIURA Hiroshi  北海道大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (70432987)

Project Period (FY) 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥7,020,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,620,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Keywords感染症情報 / 理論疫学 / 逆計算 / 統計学的推定 / 疫学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases often rests on bottom-up approach to capturing the transmission dynamics and natural history. However, the infection event is not directly observable, and thus, the infection process has to be statistically inferred using the readily observable information. The present study expanded the scientific opportunities of inference, collecting the illness onset data and utilizing such models to evaluate infectious disease interventions. Multitudes of publications including those applied to MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) and Zika fever have resulted from this project.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • 2014 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (43 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (24 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 16 results,  Peer Reviewed: 22 results,  Open Access: 22 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 23 results) Presentation (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] ジョージア州立大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] セゲド大学(ハンガリー)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] チュービンゲン大学(ドイツ)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ダブリン大学(アイルランド)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ウォリック大学(英国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016.2017

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Asai Y.
    • Journal Title

      Epidemics

      Volume: 未定 Pages: 67-72

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.005

    • NAID

      120006373735

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan2017

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama R, Miura F, Nishiura H
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Pages: e0173996-e0173996

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0173996

    • NAID

      120006219940

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Clinical determinants of the severity of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS): a systematic review and meta-analysis.2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama R, Nishiura H, Kutsuna S, Hayakawa K, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      BMC Public Health

      Volume: 16 Pages: 1203-1203

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016.2016

    • Author(s)
      Dinh L, Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

      Volume: 13 Pages: 20-20

    • NAID

      120005946860

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.2016

    • Author(s)
      Otsuki S, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 11 Issue: 9 Pages: e0163418-e0163418

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0163418

    • NAID

      120005866839

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).2016

    • Author(s)
      Nah K, Otsuki S, Chowell G, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      BMC Infectious Diseases

      Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Pages: 356-356

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12879-016-1675-z

    • NAID

      120005906932

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Rock KS, Yasuda Y, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y.
    • Journal Title

      Epidemics

      Volume: 15 Pages: 66-70

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001

    • NAID

      120005822525

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nah K, Mizumoto K, Miyamatsu Y, Yasuda Y, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      PeerJ

      Volume: 4 Pages: e1904-e1904

    • DOI

      10.7717/peerj.1904

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus infection during Colombia epidemic, 2015-2016.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Mizumoto K, Villamil-Gomez WE, Rodriguez-Morales AJ.
    • Journal Title

      Travel Med Infect Dis

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 274-276

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.tmaid.2016.03.016

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Identifying determinants of heterogeneous transmission dynamics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015: a retrospective epidemiological analysis.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Endo A, Saitoh M, Kinoshita R, Ueno R, Nakaoka S, Miyamatsu Y, Dong Y, Chowell G, Mizumoto K.
    • Journal Title

      BMJ Open

      Volume: 6

    • NAID

      120005855950

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics.2016

    • Author(s)
      Kinoshita R, Nishiura H
    • Journal Title

      BMJ Open

      Volume: 6

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Transmission potential of Zika virus infection in the South Pacific.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Mizumoto K, Yasuda Y, Nah K
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Infectious Diseases

      Volume: 45 Pages: 95-97

    • NAID

      120005766750

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Real-time characterization of risks of death associated with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 20152015

    • Author(s)
      Mizumoto K, Endo A, Chowell G, Miyamatsu Y, Saitoh M, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      BMC Medicine

      Volume: 13 Pages: 228-228

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study.2015

    • Author(s)
      Chowell G, Abdirizak F, Lee S, Lee J, Jung E, Nishiura H, Viboud C
    • Journal Title

      BMC Medicine

      Volume: 13 Pages: 210-210

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 20152015

    • Author(s)
      Mizumoto K, Saitoh M, Chowell G, Miyamatsu Y, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      .International Journal of Infectious Diseases

      Volume: 39 Pages: 7-9

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case.2015

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Chowell G, Saitoh M.
    • Journal Title

      Eurosurveillance

      Volume: 20

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella epidemic in Japan, 2012-14.2015

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Infectious Diseases

      Volume: 38 Pages: 16-18

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Transmission dynamics of vivax malaria in the republic of Korea: Effectiveness of anti-malarial mass chemoprophylaxis.2015

    • Author(s)
      Endo A, Nishiura H
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Theoretical Biology

      Volume: 380 Pages: 499-505

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Examining the reservoir potential of animal species for Leishmanial infantum infection.2015

    • Author(s)
      Fukami R, Nishiura H
    • Journal Title

      Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics

      Volume: 32 Pages: 661-673

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease2015

    • Author(s)
      Chowell G, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      PLoS Biology

      Volume: 13(1) Issue: 1 Pages: e1002057-e1002057

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pbio.1002057

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 直接に観察できない感染イベント2015

    • Author(s)
      西浦博
    • Journal Title

      数学セミナー

      Volume: 54(2) Pages: 72-78

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014.2014

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Chowell G.
    • Journal Title

      Eurosurveillance

      Volume: 19(36)

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review2014

    • Author(s)
      Chowell G, Nishiura H.
    • Journal Title

      BMC Medicine

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 196-196

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] デング熱が到来した日本の未来2014

    • Author(s)
      西浦博
    • Journal Title

      数学セミナー

      Volume: 53(12) Pages: 68-74

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Real time forecasting of the global spread of Zika virus2016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      International Zika Conference and Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      ヒルトンWashington DC Dulles, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Justifying the cost of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines2016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      Innovative Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data: IMAID
    • Place of Presentation
      神戸大学(兵庫県神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection2016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      ISEE-ISES AC2016
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-28
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ジカウイルス感染症のリアルタイム疫学モデリング研究2016

    • Author(s)
      西浦博
    • Organizer
      第5回北海道疫学交流会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌医科大学(北海道札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Disentangling the heterogeneous transmission dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 20152016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics of Infectious Diseases (MEEGID XIII)
    • Place of Presentation
      ベルギー・アントワープ
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Branching process and statistical determination of the end of an epidemic2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K
    • Organizer
      EAR-BC, Kyushu University
    • Place of Presentation
      九州大学(福岡県,福岡市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-01-25
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Joint quantification of the transmissibility and severity: A case study of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, 2015.2016

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H
    • Organizer
      FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
    • Place of Presentation
      リオデジャネイロFGV(ブラジル)
    • Year and Date
      2016-01-11
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Real-time forecasting of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan.2015

    • Author(s)
      西浦博
    • Organizer
      日本エイズ学会学術総会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京ドーム(東京都,文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimating the effective reproduction number, Ebola virus disease epidemic, 2014.2015

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Chowell G.
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases (ICEID2015),Hyatt Reggency Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
    • Place of Presentation
      ヒルトンアトランタ(アメリカ合衆国)
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-24
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimates of HIV-infected individuals with and without antiretroviral treatment in Japan.2014

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Nakaya T, Kakehashi M
    • Organizer
      日本公衆衛生学会総会
    • Place of Presentation
      栃木
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-05
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimate of HIV prevalence in Japan.2014

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H.
    • Organizer
      日本エイズ学会総会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 数理モデルを利用した日本におけるHIV感染者数の推定.2014

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Ejima K
    • Organizer
      生物数学の理論とその応用
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-16
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 感染ネットワークと発病情報を基にした隔離の効果推定2014

    • Author(s)
      Nishiura H, Ejima K
    • Organizer
      日本応用数理学会総会
    • Place of Presentation
      政策研究大学院大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-03
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 感染症数理モデルの実用化と産業及び政策での活用のための新たな展開2014

    • Author(s)
      西浦博(編)
    • Total Pages
      121
    • Publisher
      九州大学マスフォアインダストリ研究所
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2014-04-04   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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