A RESEARCH ON ANALYTICAL THEORIES OF ELECTORAL CHANGE

Research Project

Project/Area Number	60510095
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	社会学(含社会福祉関係)
Research Institution	NARA WOMEN'S UNIVERSITY
Principal Investigator	AIBA JUICHI NARA WOMEN'S UNIVERSITY, 文学部, 教授 (60030037)
Project Period (FY)	1985 – 1986
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 1986)
Budget Amount *help	¥1,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000) Fiscal Year 1986: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000) Fiscal Year 1985: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
Keywords	Floating voter hypotheses / Party identification / Turnout / Normal vote;Independent / Non-partisanship / 無党派層 / 分割投票 / コーホート分析
Research Abstract	I HAVE ENGAGED IN EXAMINING THE MAJOR THEORIES OF ELECTORAL CHANGE, AND THE RESEARCH DATA RELEVANT TO THESE THEORIES, LAYING STRESS ON SURGE AND DECLINE OF VOTERS' PARTISANSHIP. THE MAJOR THEORIES, TAKEN HERE, ARE THE SOCIAL GROUP THEORY AND ATTITUDE PSYCHOLOGY OF VOTING BEHAVIOR. THESE TWO THEORIES HAVE EXPLAINED THE CHANGE OF VOTING BEHAVIOR AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ELECTORAL PROCESS ON THE BASIS OF PARTISANSHIP. BUT, FROM THE LATTER HALF OF 1960'S ONWARD, AS THE PARTISANSHIP ITSELF TENDS TO DECLINE, WE HAVE TO AMEND THE FLOATING VOTER HYPOTHESIS BROUGHT FORWARD IN THESE THEORIES. REGARD WILL BE PAID TO SUCH FACTS AS, THE GRADUAL DECLINE OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION, THE INCREASE IN INDEPENDENTS AND THE SPLIT TICKET IN PROGRESS IN WESTERN COUNTRIES, AS WELL AS THE NON-COMMITMENT TO THE PARTIES, THE INCREASING TENDENCY OF VOTING CONSISTENCY IN JAPAN. ACCORDINGLY, ANALYTICAL THEORIES OF ELECTORAL CHANGE MUST BE THE ONES WHICH INCLUDE THE CHANGE OF CONSTITUENTS' COMPOSITION, THE VARIETY OF POLITICAL INTEREST IN INDEPENDENTS, THE GENERATIONAL CHANGE OF PARTISAN SUCCESSION AND THE RESPONSE TO THE POLITICAL ISSUES.