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不確定環境におけるファジィVaR基準に基づく収益・リスク評価モデルの構築

研究課題

研究課題/領域番号 12J01522
研究種目

特別研究員奨励費

配分区分補助金
応募区分国内
研究分野 感性情報学・ソフトコンピューティング
研究機関早稲田大学

研究代表者

王 博  早稲田大学, 情報生産システム研究科, 特別研究員PD

研究期間 (年度) 2012 – 2013
研究課題ステータス 完了 (2013年度)
配分額 *注記
1,600千円 (直接経費: 1,600千円)
2013年度: 800千円 (直接経費: 800千円)
2012年度: 800千円 (直接経費: 800千円)
キーワードUncertainty / Value-at-Risk / Risk/Return Analysis / Modeling / Unit Commitment / Portfolio Selection / Bilevel Programming / Multi-objective / Fuzzy set theory / Fuzzy Value-at-Risk / Maximal blackout time at successful operation / Two-stage multi-objective UCP model / Power load uncertainty / Solution algorithm
研究概要

In the second year of JSPS program, we continue to work in the related fields according to the research plan made when apply the JSPS scholarship. During this period, we mainly focused on the developments of several risk measurements, the constructions of complicated mathematical models and the applications of our approaches in unit commitment and portfolio selection problems. The main objects of the research have been achieved, and we have published the research results in both SCI journals and international conferences.
Our results in the past year can be summarized as follows :
1. Research on unit commitment problem : First, we improve the single-node model proposed in our previous study to a multi-node system to ferret more realistic decisions. The mathematical model is improved to handle the transmission interconnection constraints which are necessary in a multi-node unit commitment, and we unify the multi-objective problem as one function to obtain a unique solution of the problem. … もっと見る Moreover, the solution algorithm is modified accordingly to solve the complicated optimization problem. Second, recently we just finished a new study which constructs a unit commitment-based bilevel electricity trading model. This model handles the optimizations of both the generation company and the market operator simultaneously. We have submitted this result to IEEE Trans. On Power Systems.
2. Research on portfolio selection problem : Collaborate with other PhD. students in our lab, we also have some interesting results in this filed. We build two novel portfolio selection models in fuzzy environment : the first study uses technical analysis-based fuzzy birandom variables to help the managers in both security future returns forecasting and decision-making, while the second one addresses the investors' exit strategy in portfolio selection problem. Both of the studies are novel to portfolio selection problem and show effectiveness when comparing with existing literatures.
Our research on multi-node unit commitment problem also won the "Excellence paper award" in the Tenth International Symposium on Management Engineering. 隠す

現在までの達成度 (区分)
現在までの達成度 (区分)

1: 当初の計画以上に進展している

理由

25 fiscal year isn't complete for the final year this research issue.
In the past two research years, we have been working on our topic step by step, according to the plan made when applying the JSPS scholarship. Right now, the main purpose and goal of the first year has been successfully achieved and we also extend our studies to some other fields, e.g. bilevel mathematical modeling and related solution methods.

今後の研究の推進方策

With the support of JSPS program, we have obtained various research results in the past two years. Our future work will be carried on based on the current results and we will further extend our research in modeling, solution and applications fields. We want to thank the support from JSPS and we also believe more interesting results will be obtained in our future studies.

報告書

(2件)
  • 2013 実績報告書
  • 2012 実績報告書
  • 研究成果

    (6件)

すべて 2014 2013 2012

すべて 雑誌論文 (4件) (うち査読あり 4件) 学会発表 (2件) (うち招待講演 1件)

  • [雑誌論文] Portfolio Selection Models with Technical Analysis-Based Fuzzy Birandom Variables2014

    • 著者名/発表者名
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • 雑誌名

      IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems

      巻: E97.D 号: 1 ページ: 11-21

    • DOI

      10.1587/transinf.E97.D.11

    • NAID

      130003385471

    • ISSN
      0916-8532, 1745-1361
    • 関連する報告書
      2013 実績報告書
    • 査読あり
  • [雑誌論文] Impact evaluation of exit strategy in fuzzy portfolio-based investment2014

    • 著者名/発表者名
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • 雑誌名

      IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering

      巻: (To be published) 号: 5 ページ: 502-513

    • DOI

      10.1002/tee.21999

    • 関連する報告書
      2013 実績報告書
    • 査読あり
  • [雑誌論文] A Fuzzy Multi-Objective Portfolio Selection Model with Piecewise Linear Transaction Costs2014

    • 著者名/発表者名
      You Li, Bo Wang and Junzo Watada
    • 雑誌名

      電気学会論文誌C(電子・情報・システム部門誌)

      巻: 134 号: 6 ページ: 780-787

    • DOI

      10.1541/ieejeiss.134.780

    • NAID

      130004870054

    • ISSN
      0385-4221, 1348-8155
    • 関連する報告書
      2013 実績報告書
    • 査読あり
  • [雑誌論文] Supply reliability and generation cost analysis due to load forecast uncertainty in unit commitment problems2013

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • 雑誌名

      IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

      巻: (To be published) 号: 3 ページ: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1109/tpwrs.2013.2238561

    • 関連する報告書
      2012 実績報告書
    • 査読あり
  • [学会発表] Economic analysis in multi-node unit commitment optimization under fuzzy load uncertainty2013

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • 学会等名
      The Tenth International Symposium on Management Engineering 2013
    • 発表場所
      Hangzhou, China
    • 関連する報告書
      2013 実績報告書
    • 招待講演
  • [学会発表] Two-stage multi-objective unit commitment optimization under future load uncertainty2012

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Bo Wang, You Li and Junzo Watada
    • 学会等名
      The Sixth International Conference on Genetic and Evolutionary Computing
    • 発表場所
      Kitakyushu, Japan
    • 年月日
      2012-08-28
    • 関連する報告書
      2012 実績報告書

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公開日: 2013-04-25   更新日: 2024-03-26  

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