| 研究実績の概要 |
The proposed research project aims to quantify the relative contributions of asymptomatic infection and of sexual transmission compared with other routes of transmission to secondary transmission event of Ebola virus disease (EVD) using epidemiological modelling approaches. The criteria of zero Ebola cases defined by the World Health Organization did not explicitly account for the sexual transmission and led to multiple recrudescent events in West Africa from 2015-2016, partly indeed caused by sexual transmission. We proposed a statistical model to compute the probability of the end of an EVD epidemic, accounting for sexual transmission and under-ascertainment of cases. Analyzing the data in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we objectively offers the end of an epidemic.
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