Modeling the potential impact of vaccination on Ebola virus disease epidemic

• 研究課題/領域番号: 19K19343
• 研究種目: 若手研究
• 配分区分: 基金
• 審査区分: 小区分58010:医療管理学および医療系社会学関連
• 研究機関: 北海道大学
• 研究代表者: Lee Hyojung 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 助教 (40823365)
• 研究期間 (年度): 2019-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• 研究課題ステータス: 中途終了 (2019年度)
• 配分額: 4,290千円 (直接経費: 3,300千円、間接経費: 990千円); 2021年度: 1,430千円 (直接経費: 1,100千円、間接経費: 330千円); 2020年度: 1,300千円 (直接経費: 1,000千円、間接経費: 300千円); 2019年度: 1,560千円 (直接経費: 1,200千円、間接経費: 360千円)
• キーワード: Ebola virus disease / Forecasting / Reporting delay / Reproduction number / Ebola Virus Disease / Vaccination coverage / Mathematical model

研究開始時の研究の概要

The goal is to estimate the vaccine coverage by age and provinces, accounting for the sexual transmission. A province-specific model is formulated to estimate reporting delay. Sensitivity analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis are conducted to assess the economic burden until the end of epidemic.

研究実績の概要

Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic occurred in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2018-19 was analyzed.
The EVD epidemic including spatial heterogeneities and vaccination was forecasted in real time. We estimated the future reproduction numbers accounting for the reporting delay. This work was published as follows:
A.R. Akhmetzhanov*, H Lee*, S.M. Jung, et. al, Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time, Epidemics, 27, 123-131, 2019 (* represents the co-first author)

研究成果

• [雑誌論文] Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time (2019)
  • 著者名/発表者名: Akhmetzhanov AR*, Lee H*, Jung SM, Kayano T, Yuan B, Nishiura H (* represents co-first author)
  • 雑誌名: Epidemics 巻: 27 ページ: 123-131
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.002
  • 査読あり / オープンアクセス