| 研究課題/領域番号 |
20K01642
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| 研究種目 |
基盤研究(C)
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| 配分区分 | 基金 |
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| 応募区分 | 一般 |
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| 審査区分 |
小区分07040:経済政策関連
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| 研究機関 | 早稲田大学 |
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研究代表者 |
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| 研究課題ステータス |
交付 (2022年度)
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| 配分額 *注記 |
3,250千円 (直接経費: 2,500千円、間接経費: 750千円)
2022年度: 910千円 (直接経費: 700千円、間接経費: 210千円)
2021年度: 910千円 (直接経費: 700千円、間接経費: 210千円)
2020年度: 1,430千円 (直接経費: 1,100千円、間接経費: 330千円)
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| キーワード | impact of exchange rate / export price / export quantity / machinery exports / impact of tariff / system GMM / structural break / misalignments / exports to the US / imperfect substitutes |
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| 研究開始時の研究の概要 |
The research quantifies the impacts of tariff of the US on the exports of China and Japan. In addition, it constructs a structural model which can be used for similar analyses. If the model developed in the project could be employed to trace the impacts of various variables affecting exports.
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| 研究実績の概要 |
I analyzed the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine the impacts of economic variables on one country on the export quantity and and the export price of the other country. The demand for and the supply of exports of each country were estimated simultaneously. The estimation results show that the impacts of Chinese variables on Korean exports are bigger than the impacts of Korean variables on Chinese exports. When the Chinese export price decreases by 1% the demand for Korean exports decreases by 0.380%. In contrast, when the Korean export price decreases by 1% the demand for Chinese exports decreases by 0.185%. When the Chinese renminbi depreciates by 1%, the Korean export price decreases by 0.652%. When the Korean won depreciates by 1%, the Chinese export prices decrease by 0.824%.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
3: やや遅れている
理由
Because my research is about Asian machinery exports to the US, to solicit opinions and comments from exporting companies in Japan, Korea and China is an important part in the research. However, due to turbulence caused by the Covid 19, I could not contact them and therefore could not gather their comments and opinion on the preliminary empirical results. However, since the covid-19 situation was over, I am currently contacting exporting companies actively. and therefore, expect the research will soon progress as planned.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
I presented preliminary empirical findings of my research at the annual conference of the Korea Trade Research Association in Dec. 2022. After analyzing the effects of tariffs too, I will present the updated version to international conferences.
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