| 研究課題/領域番号 |
21K17926
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| 研究種目 |
若手研究
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| 配分区分 | 基金 |
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| 審査区分 |
小区分64060:環境政策および環境配慮型社会関連
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| 研究機関 | 東京大学 (2022-2023)
広島大学 (2021) |
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研究代表者 |
張 潤森 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (50785235)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| 研究課題ステータス |
完了 (2023年度)
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| 配分額 *注記 |
3,510千円 (直接経費: 2,700千円、間接経費: 810千円)
2022年度: 1,690千円 (直接経費: 1,300千円、間接経費: 390千円)
2021年度: 1,820千円 (直接経費: 1,400千円、間接経費: 420千円)
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| キーワード | post-pandemic / scenario / lifestyle / mobility / implication / transport / model coupling / decarbonization / post-COVID / new normal / integrated methodology |
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| 研究開始時の研究の概要 |
The COVID-19 crisis may create both unprecedented opportunities and challenges for the decarbonization of transport sector. This project aims to develop an integrated methodology to couple a transport model with an energy system model for low-carbon transport policymaking in the post-COVID world.
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| 研究実績の概要 |
To explore the role of the transport sector in achieving carbon carbon-neutral target in the context of a post-pandemic world, we developed a regional transport energy model to project the future energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the transport sector by integrating a transport model and a bottom-up energy system model. We collected transport and energy data from 31 provinces in China and applied this regional transport energy model to China’s 31 provinces. Then, several scenarios were created to analyze transport dynamics with an energy focus when considering the challenges and opportunities arising from the post-pandemic new normal. These scenarios were defined under varying model assumptions of lifestyle changes and mobility transformations to determine the long-term implications of deep transport decarbonization.
The lifestyle and mobility transformations in response to the pandemic with the arrival of the new normal will lead to substantial changes in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The simulation results suggested a pathway toward the decarbonization of the transport sector through the positive effects of lifestyle changes, such as spending more time working from home and shopping online. It is also expected that the inevitable modal shift from public transport to private travel and the reduction in the use of car-sharing services will increase energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Therefore, the tradeoffs and interactions between different scenarios need to be taken into account when proposing policies for carbon neutral transport development.
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