| 研究課題/領域番号 |
23K11510
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| 研究種目 |
基盤研究(C)
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| 配分区分 | 基金 |
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| 応募区分 | 一般 |
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| 審査区分 |
小区分64040:自然共生システム関連
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| 研究機関 | 沖縄科学技術大学院大学 |
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研究代表者 |
DIECKMANN Ulf 沖縄科学技術大学院大学, 複雑性科学と進化ユニット, 教授 (00961187)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2023-04-01 – 2026-03-31
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| 研究課題ステータス |
交付 (2023年度)
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| 配分額 *注記 |
3,380千円 (直接経費: 2,600千円、間接経費: 780千円)
2025年度: 910千円 (直接経費: 700千円、間接経費: 210千円)
2024年度: 1,300千円 (直接経費: 1,000千円、間接経費: 300千円)
2023年度: 1,170千円 (直接経費: 900千円、間接経費: 270千円)
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| キーワード | Sustainable management / fish stocks / ecosystem services / Pareto front / fairness / fisheries / sustainability / evolution / socioeconomics / stakeholders |
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| 研究開始時の研究の概要 |
The sustainable management of fish stocks providing vital nutrition and other ecosystem services to humankind must account for all fishery impacts. Fishery science is thus in urgent need of extending its focus on fish demography and ecology to previously unaddressed impacts. This project is spearheading two key extensions: evolutionary impact analyses (EvoIAs) and stakeholder satisfaction analyses (SSAs). By enabling predictions of optimal fishing strategies accounting for evolutionary and socioeconomic impacts, sustainable fisheries management can be facilitated worldwide.
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| 研究実績の概要 |
Research achievements have been accomplished in both components of this research project.
First, evolutionary impact analyses are revealing evolutionary vulnerabilities in the growth, maturation, reproduction, and mortality of exploited stocks, to help design fishing strategies minimizing detrimental evolutionary impacts. Based on a global database of calibrations of process-based bioenergetic life-history models and fishing patterns of 40+ exploited fish stocks, evolutionary impacts are being quantified in terms of fisheries-induced selection pressures and other measures.
Second, stakeholder satisfaction analyses are revealing socioeconomic tradeoffs among yield, profit, employment, and stock protection, and among the interests of fishers, retailers, and consumers, to help design fishing strategies minimizing detrimental socioeconomic impacts. Based on two databases of process-based bioenergetic life-history model calibrations, covering ocean-warming effects and econometric assessments for Northeast Arctic cod, socioeconomic impacts are quantified in terms of joint stakeholder satisfaction and other measures.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
Research efforts during this fiscal year have focused on perfecting the parametrizations of the biological models.
For the analyses of evolutionary impacts in 40+ fish stocks, we have enhanced the quality of each stock’s life-history model by consolidating age definitions between stock assessments and our stock models, accounting for the timing of fishing relative to that of the other life-history events, accounting for initial lengths, and using observed maturation data. Moreover, we have developed dynamic stock simulations, incorporated harvest control rules, adopted a scaling interface between each stock’s spawner-recruit model and its life-history model, and conducted viability tests based on the production of spawning-stock biomass per recruit.
For the analyses of stakeholder satisfaction in Northeast Arctic cod, we have consolidated the age definition between stock assessments and our stock model, calibrated the size and temperature dependences of natural mortality, upgraded the modeling of the spawning-ground fishery, and developed the software named ‘libpspm’, a feature-rich numerical package for solving physiologically structured population models.
All model refinements are improving the match between observations and predictions.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
For the analyses of evolutionary impacts in 40+ fish stocks, two papers are in preparation: (1) on a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-induced selection pressures on growth, maturation, and reproduction and (2) on elasticities characterizing how vulnerable fisheries-induced selection pressures are to changes in life-history parameters and how vulnerable these life-history parameters are to changes in ocean temperature.
For the analyses of stakeholder satisfaction in Northeast Arctic cod, four papers are in preparation, with papers 3-5 jointly supported by my KAKENHI Start-Up grant: (3) on the R/C++ package developed for the combined analysis of life-history dynamics and socio-economic dynamics, (4) on how vulnerable biological stock characteristics are to changes in ocean temperature, (5) on how vulnerable socio-economic stock characteristics and the resultant safe operating spaces are to changes in ocean temperature, and (6) on how agreement among diverse ethical fairness concepts helps navigate the Pareto front in this stock’s management.
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