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A data-driven modeling approach for augmenting climate model simulations and its application to Pacific-Atlantic interbasin interactions

研究課題

研究課題/領域番号 23K25946
補助金の研究課題番号 23H01250 (2023)
研究種目

基盤研究(B)

配分区分基金 (2024)
補助金 (2023)
応募区分一般
審査区分 小区分17020:大気水圏科学関連
研究機関国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構

研究代表者

RICHTER INGO  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), グループリーダー代理 (20649470)

研究分担者 東塚 知己  東京大学, 大学院理学系研究科(理学部), 准教授 (40376538)
木戸 晶一郎  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (40878394)
時長 宏樹  九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 教授 (80421890)
小坂 優  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
研究期間 (年度) 2023-04-01 – 2027-03-31
研究課題ステータス 交付 (2024年度)
配分額 *注記
18,460千円 (直接経費: 14,200千円、間接経費: 4,260千円)
2026年度: 4,420千円 (直接経費: 3,400千円、間接経費: 1,020千円)
2025年度: 4,030千円 (直接経費: 3,100千円、間接経費: 930千円)
2024年度: 5,070千円 (直接経費: 3,900千円、間接経費: 1,170千円)
2023年度: 4,940千円 (直接経費: 3,800千円、間接経費: 1,140千円)
キーワードlinear inverse model / global climate model / El Nino / pacemaker experiment / interbasin interaction / ENSO / tropical Atlantic / CMIP6 / Linear Inverse Model / basin interaction / GCM experiments / Atlantic Nino
研究開始時の研究の概要

This project aims to show that it is possible to reproduce aspects of global climate model simulations with a data-driven framework that requires only a fraction of the computational cost. This technique will be used to better understand the interaction between the tropical Atlantic and El Nino.

研究実績の概要

The targets set for fiscal year 2023 were all achieved. The coupled ocean-atmosphere control simulations with two global climate models were successfully performed and linear inverse models (LIMs) were constructed based on the model output. In addition, we have already started to construct LIMs from a large publicly available multi-model archive, which was originally planned to begin in fiscal year 2025. We have also performed more than 100 years of a pacemaker experiment in which the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic are restored to those of the freely coupled control simulation. This pacemaker experiment was originally planned for fiscal year 2024.
The impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic has been analyzed and the results have been presented at several international and domestic workshops and conferences, including the Ocean Sciences Meeting in New Orleans, USA. A manuscript has been prepared and is currently under review at the Journal of Climate.
As planned in the research proposal, we have invited the international collaborator, Ping Chang from Texas A&M University, USA, to visit the PI’s institute. We used this opportunity to organize a small workshop with participants from several research institutions in Japan, and we also held an organizational meeting for the Kakenhi research project.
The PI has also published a paper on statistical forecast correction in Monthly Weather Review.
Overall, the activities in fiscal year 2023 were successful in laying the groundwork for the overarching goals of the research project.

現在までの達成度 (区分)
現在までの達成度 (区分)

1: 当初の計画以上に進展している

理由

The research activities are currently somewhat ahead of schedule compared to what was set out in the research proposal. In particular constructing LIMs for a large multi-model database has already been completed and a first evaluation has been performed. This activity was originally planned for fiscal year 2025. Moreover, the Atlantic pacemaker experiment planned for fiscal year 2024 was already started in fiscal year 2023 and has produced over 100 years of output. In addition, holding a one-day workshop was an activity that went above the initial research plan.
The manuscript on the influence of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic took a bit longer to write than originally envisioned but we were nevertheless able to complete this task during fiscal year 2023.

今後の研究の推進方策

Given the smooth progress in the first year, we will continue to follow the research plan as set out in the research proposal. Atlantic pacemaker experiments have already been performed with one global climate model (the GFDL CM 2.1). In fiscal year 2024 we will also perform such an experiment with the other global climate model, the CESM2. These simulations will be performed by the international collaborator at Texas A&M University. The corresponding LIM experiments will be performed, and we will evaluate to what extent the LIM can reproduce the model behavior. Based on the outcome of this analysis we aim to write a manuscript and submit it to an international peer-reviewed journal. We are also planning to hold an in-person group meeting, possibly in connection with a one-day workshop, as we did in fiscal year 2023.

報告書

(1件)
  • 2023 実績報告書
  • 研究成果

    (21件)

すべて 2024 2023 その他

すべて 国際共同研究 (1件) 雑誌論文 (5件) (うち国際共著 3件、 査読あり 4件、 オープンアクセス 3件) 学会発表 (15件) (うち国際学会 14件、 招待講演 1件)

  • [国際共同研究] Texas A&M University(米国)

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
  • [雑誌論文] A Simple Statistical Postprocessing Scheme for Enhancing the Skill of Seasonal SST Predictions in the Tropics2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Richter Ingo、Ratnam Jayanthi V.、Martineau Patrick、Oettli Pascal、Doi Takeshi、Ogata Tomomichi、Kataoka Takahito、Counillon Fran?ois
    • 雑誌名

      Monthly Weather Review

      巻: 152 号: 4 ページ: 1039-1056

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-23-0266.1

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 査読あり / オープンアクセス / 国際共著
  • [雑誌論文] Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Zhang Pengcheng、Xie Shang-Ping、Kosaka Yu、Lutsko Nicholas J.
    • 雑誌名

      Journal of Climate

      巻: 37 号: 1 ページ: 199-212

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-23-0169.1

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 査読あり / 国際共著
  • [雑誌論文] Future changes in the wintertime ENSO-NAO teleconnection under greenhouse warming2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Geng Xin、Kug Jong-Seong、Kosaka Yu
    • 雑誌名

      npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

      巻: 7 号: 1 ページ: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41612-024-00627-z

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 査読あり / オープンアクセス / 国際共著
  • [雑誌論文] Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric teleconnections are intensified by extratropical ocean-atmosphere coupling2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Mori Masato、Kosaka Yu、Taguchi Bunmei、Tokinaga Hiroki、Tatebe Hiroaki、Nakamura Hisashi
    • 雑誌名

      Communications Earth & Environment

      巻: 5 号: 1 ページ: 1-16

    • DOI

      10.1038/s43247-024-01282-1

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 査読あり / オープンアクセス
  • [雑誌論文] Tropical Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations Leading to Sea Level Extremes in Coastal Indonesia during Recent Decades2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Kamp William、Han Weiqing、Zhang Lei、Kido Shoichiro、McCreary Julian P.
    • 雑誌名

      Journal of Climate

      巻: 37 号: 9 ページ: 2867-2880

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-23-0374.1

    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
  • [学会発表] Revisiting the inconsistent relation between ENSO and the equatorial Atlantic2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter, Shoichiro Kido, Tomoki Tozuka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Ping Chang
    • 学会等名
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2024
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Influences from outside of the tropics explain recent Walker circulation strengthening2024

    • 著者名/発表者名
      M. Toda, Y. Kosaka, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe
    • 学会等名
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2024
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter
    • 学会等名
      12th International Conference on Tropical Marine Environmental Changes
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会 / 招待講演
  • [学会発表] Toward quantifying the tropical Atlantic influence on ENSO2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Shoichiro Kido
    • 学会等名
      APL-ICAR Workshop
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the tropical Atlantic2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter
    • 学会等名
      Workshop on Atlantic Variability and Tropical Basin Interactions at Interannual to Multi-decadal Timescales: Mechanisms, Drivers and Impacts
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Evaluating inter-basin linkages with GCMs and LIMs2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter, Yu Kosaka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Shoichiro Kido, Ping Chang
    • 学会等名
      CLIVAR/TBI Science Meeting
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter
    • 学会等名
      APL-CMCC-ACCESS Workshop
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ingo Richter
    • 学会等名
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] A study on the role of air-sea coupling in interbasin interactions between tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans using linear inverse models2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Ziyu Ye, Shoichiro Kido, and Tomoki Tozuka
    • 学会等名
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Modulations of the Northern Annular Mode under global warming2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Y. Kosaka, K. Usui, T. Kawamura, S. Okajima, A. Miyamoto, S. Sekizawa, M. Toda, and H. Nakamura
    • 学会等名
      SENTAN-Foresight Workshop on Tropical Climate Variability
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] The extratropical pacemaker effect on tropical Pacific climate variability2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Y. Kosaka, M. Toda, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe
    • 学会等名
      IUGG 2023 General Assembly
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Modulations of the Northern Annular Mode under global warming2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Y. Kosaka, T. Kawamura, K. Usui, S. Okajima, A. Miyamoto, S. Sekizawa, M. Toda, and H. Nakamura
    • 学会等名
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Future changes in tropical cyclone activity during the summer to fall season following El Nino2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Kotaro Hara, Masato Mori
    • 学会等名
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
  • [学会発表] Western Pacific teleconnection-induced East Asian warm winter during El Nino: Role of the Indian Ocean warming2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Masahiro SHIOZAKI, Hiroki TOKINAGA, Masato MORI
    • 学会等名
      JpGU Meeting
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Future changes in tropical cyclone activity during the following summer-fall season of El Nino2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Kotaro Hara, Masato Mori
    • 学会等名
      JpGU Meeting
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実績報告書
    • 国際学会

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公開日: 2023-04-18   更新日: 2024-12-25  

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