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教会による投票行動、経済発展及び犯罪率への影響

研究課題

研究課題/領域番号 23KJ1421
研究種目

特別研究員奨励費

配分区分基金
応募区分国内
審査区分 小区分07040:経済政策関連
研究機関大阪大学

研究代表者

KUGAEVSKAIA ELIZAVETA  大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 特別研究員(DC2)

研究期間 (年度) 2023-04-25 – 2025-03-31
研究課題ステータス 交付 (2023年度)
配分額 *注記
1,000千円 (直接経費: 1,000千円)
2024年度: 500千円 (直接経費: 500千円)
2023年度: 500千円 (直接経費: 500千円)
キーワードvoting behavior / church / religion / mood / protest
研究開始時の研究の概要

The goal of this project is to uncover how religious institutions affect behavior of individuals in different social spheres. I examine the influence of church as an organization on voting behavior, economic development and gender-based violence in an understudied context of Eastern Orthodox Church. To conduct these analyses, I construct a novel panel of church location and foundation year.

研究実績の概要

Following the research plan for the first year, I investigated the relationship between church network expansion and electoral outcomes by employing difference-in-differences methodology. In particular, I collected data on church location and foundation year and examined how an increase in the number of churches affects vote shares for parties of different political orientation and turnout. My findings suggest that in urban districts with more churches vote share of the conservative party decreases and part of it goes to the communist party.
I further proceeded with the plan for the second year, modifying some aspects due to the current political situation making it difficult to access data on websites hosted inside the country. (1) In addition to the influence of church, I examined how mood affects voting behavior by exploiting variation in clock time around time zone borders on electoral outcomes and using regression discontinuity design. I find that to the west of the border where the sun rises and sets at an earlier clock time turnout increases, especially in the morning, with additional votes going to the incumbent party and president. (2) Defining violence more broadly, I acquired data on different types of protests to examine how religion influences participation in protests in the second year.

現在までの達成度 (区分)
現在までの達成度 (区分)

1: 当初の計画以上に進展している

理由

In addition to the main analysis I planned for the first year, I was able to proceed to the plan for the second year, modifying some aspects due to the current political situation making it difficult to access data on websites hosted inside the country. (1) In addition to the influence of church, I examined the influence of mood on voting behavior by exploiting a discontinuous change in time zones at municipal borders. I find that to the west of the border where the sun rises and sets at an earlier clock time turnout increases, especially in the morning, with additional votes going to the incumbent party and president. (2) Defining violence more broadly, I acquired data on different types of protests to examine the influence of church on the incidence of protests in the second year.

今後の研究の推進方策

In the second year, I plan to further extend my research of the impact of mood on voting behavior due to circadian rhythm disruption induced by time zones. I will investigate mechanisms behind the increase in turnout and incumbents' vote shares to the west of time zone border where the sun rises and sets at an earlier clock time. I plan to collect and analyse (1) Google Trends data related to mood, (2) data on weather and climate.
With the data on different types of protests I acquired in the first year, I will examine how religion influences participation in protests by exploiting variation in location and timing of the construction of new churches and employing difference-in-differences methodology.

報告書

(1件)
  • 2023 実施状況報告書
  • 研究成果

    (1件)

すべて 2023

すべて 学会発表 (1件)

  • [学会発表] Church and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Russia2023

    • 著者名/発表者名
      KUGAEVSKAIA ELIZAVETA
    • 学会等名
      日本経済学会
    • 関連する報告書
      2023 実施状況報告書

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公開日: 2023-04-26   更新日: 2024-12-25  

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