| 研究概要 |
The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports from four East Asian countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand) to Japan was examined. Specifically, it was explored whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an East Asian country and Japan negatively affects the exports of the East Asian country to Japan. Considering the dominant roles of the U.S. and Japan as trading Partners of those East Asian countries, this research also examined the case of exports to the U.S. Specifically this paper focuses on the monthly export volumes of East Asian countries to the U.S. and Japan for the period from 1990 to 2001. Except for the case of Hong Kong's exports to Japan, cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short run or in the long-run, or both. On the other hand, manufacturing production indices of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out, in general, to have positive effects on the exports of the East Asian countries examined.
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