Wolff David 北海道大学, スラブ・ユーラシア研究センター, 教授 (60435948)
石井 明 東京大学, 大学院総合文化研究科, 名誉教授 (10012460)
岩下 明裕 北海道大学, スラブ・ユーラシア研究センター, 教授 (20243876)
中地 美枝 北海道大学, スラブ・ユーラシア研究センター, 共同研究員 (90567067)
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
|キーワード||外交史 / 国際関係史 / 中露関係 / 中国 / ロシア|
This past year Kaken B members, both buntansha and renkeikenkyusha, focused on preparing first drafts of preliminary results that were then presented as a sponsored panel at a conference in Kokura in December. The research directions represented there included: 1) the role of relations with China in limiting Russia’s foreign policy options; 2) the position of China’s ties to Russia in China’s global policy; 3) the comparative role of corruption in both Russia and China; 4) the Russo-Chinese relationship as a new kind of international relations. These topics were not only discussed among kaken members, but were also presented to an audience that included scholars from Russia and China in order to get their reaction.
Although Russo-Chinese relations were not in the headlines during HS28, many related news items, included Russo-Chinese ties, just below the surface. In particular, the election of Donald Trump as US president had a strong impact. With hopes for improved relations with the US, President Putin withdrew from any dramatic improvement in ties with Japan during his summit with Prime Minister Abe in Yamaguchi province. This certainly helped keep Chinese and Russian policy towards Japan in parallel. Similarly, the Trump administration’s decision to consider China responsible for the approaching North Korean crisis has led Russia to speak up again in favor of the renewal of the six-party talks.
Kaken members also presented preliminary results of our research in China, Japan, the US and Europe.
An uchiawase was held at the Kokura conference.
2 : おおむね順調に進展している
This year we made good progress on all the topics included in kaken but because we are mainly focused on bilateral and regional dynamics, the surprise results of the American presidential elections have complicated our analysis. Because of Trump’s distance from the US foreign policy establishment, what was previously imagined as a predictable continuation of US policies toward Russia and China from Obama to Clinton has now become an unpredictable wildcard affecting not only Russo-Chinese relations, but all relations among powerful nations.
In order to overcome this difficult, Kaken B has invited a Harvard professor to Sapporo in May 2017 to discuss the evolving nature of US policymaking in general and policy toward Russia in particular. Similarly, a retired top diplomat, a specialist on Russia, has been invited from Beijing to provide information on how the Trump presidency has affected China’s ties with various countries in Northeast Asia.
In HS29, Kaken B will play the lead role in organizing the Summer Symposium at the Slavic-Eurasian Research Center of Hokkaido University. In addition to exploring several dimensions of Russo-Chinese relations, this symposium will interrogate the ways in which cooperation and competition can reinforce each other in the context of Russo-Chinese ties.
The session on high politics will examine military policies as an issue in Russo-Chinese affairs, diplomatic and security issues in the South China Sea, as well as economic structures in Central Asia. A separate session will focus on cross-border contact between Russia and China, giving special attention to seeming reduction in contact in order to avoid friction between the two powers. A session on regional dynamics will not only look at the Northeast Asian dimension, but also examine the role of India as a balancer in Russo-Chinese relations. All of these matters will be examined both in contemporary and historical context in order to understand which mutual influences are the product of recent decisions and which are ongoing and cumulative over the course of decades.
Additional events at which Kaken B results will be presented are presently under negotiation with the Russian, Chinese and Polish Academies of Science. The results of the symposium will be prepared for later publication.