| 研究実績の概要 |
This project examines how negative shocks propagate through supply chains, by applying a simulation technique to actual data on supply chains of Japanese firms. To investigate the property of the propagation on the network, we tested different types of artificial negative shocks. We obtained the following results. First, network structures severely affect the speed of propagation in the medium run and the total loss in the long run. The scale-free nature of the actual supply-chain network, that is, the power-law degree distribution, leads to faster propagation. Second, more intensive damages, that is, more damages suffered by fewer firms, result in faster propagation than extensive damages of the same total size. Third, difficulty in substituting damaged suppliers accelerates the propagation of negative shocks substantially . Fourth, direct damages in urban regions promote faster propagation than those in rural regions. Fifth, different sectoral damages show significant differences in the speed of propagation. Finally, the estimation of the indirect damage triggered by a single firm’s loss shows that approximately 10% firms contribute toward more than 10% damage across entire supply chains. All these results imply that different direct damages, which are alike in terms of the total magnitude of damages, can generate considerably different damages because of the structure of the supply-chain network.
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