| 研究課題/領域番号 |
16F16073
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| 研究機関 | 京都大学 |
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研究代表者 |
田中 賢治 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (30283625)
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| 研究分担者 |
Khujanazarov Temur 京都大学, 防災研究所, 外国人特別研究員
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2016-04-22 – 2018-03-31
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| キーワード | soil moisture / climate change / water resources / irrigation |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
For analysis of the water availability we use SiBUC model to estimate water balance through physical processes modeling. Results of this research were presented in the international conference ICWRER. Field trip to glaciers in high reaches had been held to discuss and observe snow and glacier melting processes and collecting data.
Information on the current state of the irrigation facilities and techniques, new crops used in the fields and their water requirement was collected during field trip visit in September 2016. In this trip areas of the middle stream flow of the Zeravshan River Basin were investigated. After discussion with persons from Samarkand State University, it was decided to install our observation sites in downstream as it provides a better potential to check soil salinity and created salinity distribution. Soil moisture measurement equipment was purchased for the installation on the site and brought to the Uzbekistan.
In November, in the workshop organized by ICBA (Crop diversification and adaptation under climate change: new salt-tolerant crops and modeling options for management optimization) we presented our results of the various climate change scenarios impact to the Central Asia and possible outcomes for the region. Stakeholders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan had attended this meeting to discuss policy and solutions available and used in the region. We could get much useful information in direct discussion of the various crops and policy implementation that will be used for our final recommendations.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
The project is ongoing, this final year we will be able to finish most of our works and continue observation to improve our simulation results.
Assessment of the climate change impact(70%), Data collection and application(65%), Policy and distribution of the project outcomes to farmers and stakeholders(30%), Analysis of the soil salinity and water distribution map(20%).
Overall project progress is 45%, and we need more information on the snow and glacier melting for better model forecast. Another problem is preparing soil salinity map. The ground truth data is very hard to get to compare with analysis.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
Over stress of the water resources availability it is important to define water efficiency and water availability for agricultural crops. Available productive area and its water demands will assist for planning efficient water management techniques and investigate appropriate irrigation methods to maximize outcomes of the main and market oriented crops. The analysis of water consumption by various types of crops will be important in the future projections. To accomplish this goal, soil salinity analysis and crop distribution map will be prepared. Field information gained from soil sensors and data provided by International Center of Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) in Uzbekistan on crop productivity will be used. Water resources availability and types of crops applicable in future based on modeled outcomes will be defined by using available high resolution GSM datasets. This will help to consider variance of the climate impact fluctuations and improve our projected scenarios.
The measures will consider food security and economical stability to maximize the use of the available water resources. Physical aspects of climate change will help in assessing water resources availability to define irrigation strategies and calculate crop water demand. Those perspectives can help to insight some of the most important environmental, economical and agricultural challenges Central Asian countries will have to address in future.
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