| 研究課題/領域番号 |
16F16790
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| 研究機関 | 東京大学 |
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研究代表者 |
福士 謙介 東京大学, サステイナビリティ学連携研究機構, 教授 (30282114)
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| 研究分担者 |
KEFI MOHAMED 東京大学, サステイナビリティ学連携研究機構, 外国人特別研究員
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2016-10-07 – 2019-03-31
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| キーワード | Economic flood damage / Urban / GIS data / Flood risk |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
The main objective of the Fellow’s research is to evaluate urban flood damage in the target cities of the Water and Urban Initiative( WUI )project. During this period, he focused on literature review related to natural disaster in particular. He also set up an appropriate methodology to quantify current and future flood risk and tangible direct flood damage. He applied an approach based on spatial analysis, which requires the integration of several data related to flood characteristics (depth), land use classes, property’s value and damage rate. Some scenarios were also implemented in the model to assess the impact of flood risk in different situations. His study is characterized by laboratory and field activities. In the laboratory, he concentrated on GIS data processing such as Land Use and Flood damage map. In order to collect specific data related to flood damage on the target cities of the project and to validate preliminary results, he conducted two field surveys in Manila, Philippines and Hanoi, Vietnam. In collaboration with local partners as an NGO in Manila and University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, he gathered data in line with the purpose of the study from local people and local experts. During this period, he also participated in three consultation workshops with local stakeholders and researchers organized in Manila and Hanoi to present preliminary findings. It was an occasion to receive relevant feedback from local experts to improve the model and to enhance the analysis.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
Overall, the level of progress is quite promising. Considering that the main target of the Fellow’s research during the period from September 2016 to March 2017 was to develop effective approach for his research and running his model, he emphasized his activities on the establishment of the methodology including data collection, processing and analysis. Based on the main purpose of the research, a deep literature review, availability of database and discussion with his colleagues, he decided to apply a spatial approach using several parameters such as flood depth, land use, property value and damage rate. Several GIS data were determined and used for the initial findings. Furthermore, fieldwork was conducted in Hanoi, Vietnam and Manila, Philippines. Data was collected from field survey based on interviews with local people and experts. Additionally, he also has an opportunity to introduce preliminary results such as flood damage risk and economic loss during consultation workshops organized by the WUI project in Manila and Hanoi. He also made his first JSPS presentation at UNU-IAS on February 8th, 2017. He was requested to make a presentation about the research in the 81th ARENA seminar at University of Tsukuba, Japan in December 2016.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
For this new fiscal year (April 2017-March 2018), the Fellow will focus on data collection in the other case studies from South-East Asian megacities such as Jakarta, Indonesia and Chennai, India. He will also continue data analysis for flood damage assessment using a spatial approach. The establishment of a calibrated baseline model to generate the real conditions at local level as accurately as possible will be done. This model will be useful for the implementation of several scenarios for flooding control and prediction as well as economic flood damage assessment. Field investigation in target cities will be arranged with the collaboration of local partners. Regarding to data required, three types of questionnaires (Residents, No-Residents and Municipalities) will be used to assess the flood risk and to evaluate the economic flood damage. The survey will be a valuable approach for the validation of the flood risk map generated from flood simulation model as well. Some meetings will be also arranged with local stakeholders to introduce the findings of the analysis. The results can be useful for the decision makers to adopt appropriate strategies for the implementation of structural and non-structural measures to reduce the effects of flood in urban areas. The main achievement will be presented in scientific conferences in Japan and abroad. Papers showing the main results will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals.
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