| 研究実績の概要 |
In FY2018, we incorporated the structure of global value chains (GVCs) into the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that we constructed in FY2016. We employed the OECD's inter-country input-output (ICIO) tables, which disaggregate imports of intermediate inputs by country of origin, to model detailed GVCs among countries and regions and added them to our model.
In the first policy scenario, we assumed that CPTPP (or TPP11) would be implemented over the period 2019-2028, followed by an enlarged CPTPP from 2024-2033. In the second scenario, we assumed that 16 RCEP members would implement the agreement over the 2021-2030 period, followed by RCEP+Taiwan from 2026-2035. In both scenarios, welfare gains are relatively large in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. Welfare changes that are projected using the model with the GVC structure are similar to those that are projected using the standard dynamic CGE model.
By contrast, the incorporation of the GVC structure greatly affects the magnitudes of sectoral output changes, particularly in machinery and electronic equipment. An important reason why output of these sectors increases in several countries, such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, is because tariff elimination reduces costs of intermediate inputs, lowering average and marginal costs of production. When producers and consumers decide how much to allocate intermediate/final products between domestic and imported products and where to source them simultaneously, the absolute values of sectoral output changes become greater in the great majority of sectors.
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