| 研究実績の概要 |
Model development has been completed and projections of population aging with policy interventions made to the year 2065. A manuscript has been prepared describing the modeling process, the different scenario projections and policy implications for Japan. The research showed that fertility policies will have little impact on the rate of increase of the old age dependency ratio, with a total fertility rate far above replacement levels required to compensate for Japan’s already aged demography. Migration measures would require unprecedented, and ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades in order to reduce Japan’s OADR. Neither fertility nor migration policy will reduce Japan’s OADR or reverse Japan’s ageing population. This research has shown that Japan needs to focus on activating its human capital through the prolongation of working lives, increasing participation, and improving productivity within the Japanese labour force to mitigate and adapt to the inevitable effects of ageing populations.
The PI has also received training in matrix models and has developed a matrix model for migration-based and natal-based demographic policies that can estimate the long-term demographic mixture in the Japanese population, enabling assessment of multi-generational migrant population structures under different demographic policies.
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