| 研究課題/領域番号 |
17H02537
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| 研究機関 | 政策研究大学院大学 |
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研究代表者 |
Hsu Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| 研究分担者 |
藤本 淳一 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00507907)
Chen Stacey 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (40785680)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| キーワード | Low Fertility / Marriage / Female Labor Supply / Population Aging |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
During FY 2018, we continued the theoretical and empirical development to provide theoretical explanations to observed demographic/labor patterns, quantitative analysis, and policy investigation. The following points are the main work we have done:
1. Data collection from several developing countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
2. We have extended the theoretical model to have endogenous marriage and fertility decisions.
3. We have completed the Japanese data collection and some empirical analysis.
4. We have performed some quantitative model simulations.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
3: やや遅れている
理由
Although we have got a significant progress on the theoretical framework, it is still challenging to endogenize marriage, fertility, female labor supply together in a life cycle model. We are still working on it.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
For this fiscal year, our work will involve continuing the theoretical and empirical development to deliver comprehensive and constructive policy suggestions.
1. Data collection for Taiwan and S. Korea.
2. Complete the theoretical model and find its solution.
3. Complete the Japanese data collection and empirical analysis. Estimate/calibrate the model as a benchmark.
4. Perform quantitative model simulations with potential policy reforms on labor/education/childcare/taxation policies.
5. Extend the benchmark model to discuss other types of aging economies, including immigrants, informal sector, and other institutional differences.
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