| 研究実績の概要 |
During the year, I focused on creating a database of regional strongholds for Japan, UK, Sweden and Canada for state-wide parties using existing electoral databases (CLEA, European Election Database, etc). Referencing existing literature and media reports, I developed an index for estimating regional-level strongholds looking at the highest subnational administrative tier: Japanese prefectures, UK regions, Canadian provinces, and Swedish counties. For countries with majoritarian systems, regions/prefectures/provinces in which parties captured 50%, 70%, or 90% seat share over more than 3 electoral cycles were categorized as moderate, strong, and super “strongholds”. For Sweden, which uses a proportional system, I calculated the counties in which state-wide parties had the highest vote share over several electoral cycles, categorizing the top 3 counties as these parties’ “strongholds”.
In addition to this database, I also collected campaigning data (mainly candidate manifestos) for stronghold prefectures in Japan (Shimane, Toyama, Ishikawa, e.g.) and more competitive regions (Osaka, Tokyo, Okinawa) for analysis of how campaigning differs in these areas. Finally, conference presentations were used to share ideas about impact of strongholds on national party competition and policy making, particularly conflicts between national and local levels.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
Creating an index for states with majoritarian electoral systems (Japan, Canada, UK) has gone relatively smoothly, but I have yet to develop a more comparative one for those with proportional systems (Sweden, Italy, Belgium). Collecting data and description on strongholds for Italy and Belgium remain a challenge due to language issues, and consultation with country experts will be necessary.
It was relatively unproblematic to find campaign data of strongholds in Japan by focusing on media reports and gathering candidate manifestos in these regions. This approach would not be possible elsewhere, so I must consider how to find equivalent campaign material to investigate how such strongholds are challenged by other parties in these countries.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
I hope to further collect historical campaigning data and descriptions of elections in persisting strongholds, but also those that have collapsed, not just in Japan, but the comparative case countries. I plan to consult with country experts in UK, Italy, Belgium, and Sweden about which parties and their regional strongholds would be suitable sample cases to investigate. I plan to make research trips to gather such material and directly consult with local experts are planned, depending on their schedules during the coming year.
I also hope to start writing an article focusing just on the changing nature of strongholds in Japan pre- and post- electoral system reform in the 1990s. I hope to present this paper in an international conference within the year.
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| 次年度使用額が生じた理由 |
I did not spend as much of the funds for travelling as expected: particularly in terms of overseas research trips. I will be needing to visit case countries to consult with experts and gather campaigning material (probably UK, Belgium, Italy, and Sweden) during the coming year, so I would need this incurring amount to be used next fiscal year.
In addition, payment for research assistant work hours was lower than planned. This coming fiscal year I hope to increase these hours to accelerate the sorting and digitalizing of campaign data which I have been collecting this year.
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