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2020 年度 実績報告書

Development of an HPC enhanced system for finding fine-grained lifeline recovery plans and evaluating their long term economic performance

研究課題

研究課題/領域番号 18H01675
研究機関東京大学

研究代表者

Maddegedar a.L.  東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (20426290)

研究期間 (年度) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
キーワードeconomic simulations / agent based model / earthquake disaster / big-data / machine learning
研究実績の概要

Analyzing the data from e-Stat, Bank of Japan, and System of National accounts of Japan, we generated the basic input data for simulating the Japanese economy. This input data set could reproduce the past records to reasonable degree. The agent based simulators parallel computing capabilities are further enhanced by improving its shared memory computing capabilities such that super computers like Fugaku, which has high CPU core count and limited amount of system memory, can be efficiently utilized. The developed HPC-enhanced economic simulator is coupled with the Integrated Earthquake Simulator so that the ground motion due to a given earthquake wave, the corresponding seismic response of each individual building in a large area, and the national economic following the simulated disaster can be seamlessly simulated. We improved the recovery plan generating code to generate better recovery plans for discrete problems. Further, the computational capability of the recovery plan generator was enhanced by implementing distributed parallel extension to search for solutions on parallel fronts. The code for recovery plan generation under network constraint also was improved to reduce runtime and generate more optimal solutions. Using the developed system, we conducted a preliminary simulation of an earthquake disaster in Kobe region and simulated the economy. Further, we developed a LSTM based machine-learning model to improve the decision making capabilities of the agents.

現在までの達成度 (区分)
現在までの達成度 (区分)

2: おおむね順調に進展している

理由

We completed all the planned items successfully, except the utilization of data from Teikoku DataBank. The data from Teikoku DataBank could not be utilized due to incompatibilities with the data from e-Stat. As planned, we successfully simulated an earthquake disaster in Kobe area and the national economy following the simulated disaster.

今後の研究の推進方策

The developed system will be further tightly integrated with IES utilizing PACT so that economic aftermaths of a major earthquake disaster can be realistically simulated considering each building’s repair cost, repair time, probability of collapse, etc. Further, we plan to generate a more consistent input data set based on statistics from government portals so that the Japanese national economy can be simulated to a higher accuracy compared to the results of this fiscal year. We plan to analyze the progress of Japanese economy due to the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake Model provided by the Cabinet office. Due to the limitations of availability of data, only the Osaka and Kobe area, involving about 1.8 million buildings, is to be simulated.

  • 研究成果

    (3件)

すべて 2020

すべて 雑誌論文 (1件) (うち国際共著 1件) 学会発表 (2件) (うち国際学会 2件)

  • [雑誌論文] Development of High-performance Computing Extension for an Agent Based Economic Model for Fine-grained Post-disaster Economy Simulations2020

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Sebastian Poledna, Muneo Hori, Tsuyoshi Ichimura, Kohei Fujita
    • 雑誌名

      Proceedings of the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

      巻: - ページ: -

    • 国際共著
  • [学会発表] Development of High-performance Computing Extension for an Agent Based Economic Model for Fine-grained Post-disaster Economy Simulations2020

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Sebastian Poledna, Muneo Hori, Tsuyoshi Ichimura, Kohei Fujita
    • 学会等名
      The 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
    • 国際学会
  • [学会発表] Unification of Integrated Earthquake Simulator and Agent Based Economic Model to Estimate Economic Impacts of an Earthquake Disaster2020

    • 著者名/発表者名
      Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Sebastian Poledna, Muneo Hori, Yoshiki Ogawa, Yuki Akiyama, Yoshihide Sekimoto
    • 学会等名
      Computational Engineering and Science for Safety and Environmental Problems
    • 国際学会

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公開日: 2022-12-28  

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