| 研究実績の概要 |
Major achievements in this fiscal year are the validation of the developed the developed HPC-enhanced Agent Based Economic Model (ABEM), and the seamless simulation of a large-scale earthquake disaster and the economic progress following the disaster. Analyzing the aggregated data available at government portals, such as e-Stat, The Bank of Japan, Research Institute of Economy Trade and Industry, we identified the necessary parameters to initialize economic entities in an one-to-one scale model of Japanese economy consisting of nearly 130 million agents. Initializing the model with the state of 2015, we simulated the quarterly progress of the Japanese economy for the next 4 years. Good agreement between the macro-economic indices (e.g. GDP, GVA, etc.) from simulation and real-world demonstrated that the developed model can simulate the Japanese economy to a reasonable degree of confidence. Further, utilizing the data available at Research Institute of Economy Trade and Industry, we were able to reproduce industry level economic indices to a reasonable accuracy, especially for industries with more than 3 trillion Yen output. Using the integrated system, a)we simulated the seismic-response of nearly 2 million buildings in Osaka and and Kobe area subjected to Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake Model provided by the Cabinet office, b)estimated the damage-level, recovery period, etc., of each building, and c) simulated the progress of the economy after the simulated disaster.
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