| 研究課題/領域番号 |
18K12817
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| 研究機関 | 武蔵大学 |
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研究代表者 |
Franco Pedro 武蔵大学, 経済学部, 助教 (70791383)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2018-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| キーワード | Financial Regulation / Financial Complexity / Optimal Contracts |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
1. The focus of FY2018 was in contacting sources of data (data providers, regulators and archives) and further developing the empirical strategy and, due to this, our modelling and theory. This was done through a period of around 4/5 months, mostly July/August/October, but also during parts of June/November. The two authors, Franco and Azulai, met in August.
A smaller contribution lies with an unrelated project (Civility and Hostility in Parliamentary Politics, with Kuniaki Nemoto), which developed some of the text processing methods to be used in the empirics; done mostly in April/June, then parts of November/December.
2. We developed a new empirical strategy for FY2019. We found sources of data for some alternative empirical strategies. We revised the approach for our theoretical modeling and computational analyses, deciding on obtaining empirical results first to then revise the base model.
3. We believe a more realistic model will come with our new approach to the empirics and modeling. We have progressed into finding what data sources will/will not work.
4. The biggest issue was finding data that suits our empirical strategy. We will continue to search for data through similar methods to what we used in FY2018. If we cannot find data within a suitable time frame, we have two alternative solutions to this problem: finding a suitable co-author; changing the empirical strategy to something simpler, which we already have found potential databases (see also future work section).
As a last resort, we would return to the model and computational analyses without further empirics.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
3: やや遅れている
理由
Our research is not progressing as smoothly as expected for three key reasons. Firstly, from our discussions throughout the year, we have changed our empirical strategy to some extent. This change means the data we need to find is significantly harder to find than initially planned, and the data providers and government organizations we contacted were less helpful than we initially anticipated.
Secondly, based on feedback we have received on the project so far, we decided to try to revise and further develop our model and computational analyses after obtaining some empirical results. This meant that we opted to forgo going into a deeper modeling and computational analyses until the empirical portion was done and progress was stalled due to the difficulties of the data.
Thirdly, Franco had some commitments that were unexpected from his side, regarding his teaching duties, and this caused some disruption to his own research agenda this year. Azulai also transitioned from a PhD student to a Postdoc student, and this took up significant amount of his time.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
1. The core plan remains the same, to do empirical analyses of the complexity of contracts/financial prospectus, to further develop our model and to do quantitative computational modelling based on the last two. To achieve this, in FY2019 we plan on continue talking with financial authorities, with private data providers and with banks.
If we cannot find suitable data within a reasonable time frame, we have two possible alternative strategies.
The first is to find a co-author to assist in the empirics, ideally someone with direct regulatory experience, such as in a central bank, and who has experience with the data that we are interested in.
The second is to pare down the objectives of the empirics closer to what we originally envisioned. At least one data provider (Thomson Reuters) said (in FY2018) they would likely have suitable data, and we have also found databases of financial prospectus (but not financial contracts) that might also work.
As a last resort, we can progress with the model and computational analyses without further empirics.
2. Our significant change lies with the empirics; we aim to find direct evidence of use of strategic complexity by banks, as opposed to calculating the complexity in contracts over time. This likely requires looking into archival data at banks, and we have contacted archivists for this, e.g., from the Citigroup archives. We may also employ other novel tactics, such as comparing prospectus used by the same banks for similar products under the purview of different regulators.
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| 次年度使用額が生じた理由 |
The biggest single expense we have budgeted is for buying access to a database, which requires finding a suitable data provider. As progress with that was slow, our other expenses, mainly flying to present the paper at different conferences and seminars, and to work with my co-author in person, were postponed.
As the overall core of the project has not changed, we will aim to use those expenses as budgeted through FY2019.
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