| 研究実績の概要 |
Research has focused on two areas: first, how did conflicts over territory emerge in Europe over the the 1000-1850, and which of these conflicts became violent? Second, how do countries cooperate in order to achieve common goals with respect to climate change?
With regard to territorial changes in Europe, we processed a database of all territorial changes in Europe over the 1000-1850 period. We then used this data to estimate the power of countries, and how these relative powers have changed over time. A final step, currently underway, is to consider how the formation of alliances in wars depends on the relative powers of these countries. Theory predicts that less powerful countries will group together to attack the most powerful countries, but it is not obvious how to test this empirically. Our current approach is to examine "triangles" of countries, and try to compare cases where the most powerful country is being attacked by two weaker countries, relative to cases where a less powerful country is being attacked by two other countries. We suspect that the former should be more prevalent in the data, and this would offer empirical confirmation of a "balance of power" in the European state system.
With regard to cooperation between countries, we examined climate legislation since the 1970s and showed that, particularly in the case of unconsolidated democracies, legislation is passed immediately before elections. This suggests that it is intended as political advertising, and will not be enforced.
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