| 研究実績の概要 |
I have estimated the demand and supply equations of Japanese machinery exports to the US using the system GMM, which is the basis model for the project. (The xtabond2 codes of STATA was used to implement the estimation.) The period covered is from 2002Q2 to 2018Q3, and the sectors covered are 84, 85 and 87 by the HS code. The findings strongly indicate that estimation results are sensitive to model specifications, warning the impacts of tariffs must be analyzed in adequately specified models.
For example, when the Euro exchange rate is not included in the demand equation, the impact of the price of the Japanese yen on export prices does not show significant structural change before (2002~2008) and after (2012~2018) the global financial crisis. The coefficient is -0.31 before the crisis and -0.38 after the crisis, and both of them are strongly significant. However, if the Euro exchange rate is included as one of the explanatory variables, yen's price turns out to affect Japanese export prices only before the global financial crisis. The coefficient becomes insignificant for the period after the crisis. Meanwhile, the price elasticity in the demand equation is estimated to be reasonable values.
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