| 研究課題/領域番号 |
20K20027
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| 研究機関 | 沖縄科学技術大学院大学 |
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研究代表者 |
SHAH PAYAL 沖縄科学技術大学院大学, サイエンステクノロジーグループ, 研究員 (30773220)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2020-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| キーワード | climate change / diversification / conservation / dynamic optimization / portfolio optimization / uncertainty |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
The use of modern portfolio theory in systematic conservation planning is gaining importance in tackling climate change uncertainty in conservation outcomes. However, these methods are difficult to implement for fine scale conservation planning when the information on future climate scenarios is limited. In the first part of my project, I have identified three statistical estimators that can be used in scenarios where there is lack of sufficient information and enable the use of modern portfolio theory for a large number of planning units even in the absence of complete information. As a test case, I have applied these statistical estimators to identifying efficient portfolio allocation strategies using case studies of conservation planning for the Prairie Pothole Region and Moretown Bay Area. I find that two of the three estimators perform relatively well and can identify risk-return outcomes that are close to those identified with complete information. The methods identified in this study can broaden the range of cases where the application of modern portfolio theory is possible in conservation planning and thus enhance its uptake and lead to more efficient allocation of conservation resources. So far the statistical methods have only been applied for static conservation planning problems.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
I have been able to successfully complete the first part of the project and submit the manuscript for review at Methods in Ecology and Evolution. The statistical methods identified in the first phase provides a good starting point to conduct the second phase of the project where we expand the theoretical model to consider dynamic portfolio allocation for fine scale conservation planning. We have also collected a wide variety of datasets which can be used to understand the practical application of the new methods.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
In the next phase of this research, I will incorporate the statistical estimators into a dynamic portfolio optimization model to allow for conservation planning over multiple years. Using this approach, I will develop a new decision framework for environmental protection under climate change by formally integrating two different risk-reduction strategies: (a) portfolio theory to diversify across different environmental projects at a single point of time, and (b) real options analyses to determine dynamic modification of environmental actions through time. I will apply this new decision framework to do global coastal conservation planning under climate change using two datasets that I have already collected: 1) climate induced wetland changes in the eastern United States from 2025 to 2050 and 2) climate induced changes to coastal areas in Moretown Bay area of Australia starting from 2030 to 2100. I plan to submit a manuscript for publication in an international journal based on this work by March 2022.
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| 次年度使用額が生じた理由 |
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, I could not travel to 2 planned conferences this year. I plan to travel in December 2021 to Tokyo to give a seminar based on the current and ongoing work using the leftover funds.
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