| 研究課題/領域番号 |
21K13263
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| 研究機関 | 早稲田大学 |
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研究代表者 |
劉 水歌 早稲田大学, 現代政治研究所, 招聘研究員 (80779083)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2021-04-01 – 2026-03-31
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| キーワード | Game theory / epistemic game theory / quantal equilibrium / political economy |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
First, the first year’s plan has been achieved: I and Fabio Maccheroni (Bocconi U) had a robust epistemic foundation for quantal equilibrium. It can predict and implement collective actions when only the proportions that take specific actions in the population matter, e.g., the benchmark inoculation rate based on willingness. We have finished a working paper.
Second, Tomoo Kikuchi (Waseda U) and I had worked out a novel model combining cooperative and non-cooperative games to analyze hegemony and competition between superpowers. This research opened a rich vision since it has used abundant data for simulation and testing and provides huge rooms for integrating various components (including epistemic GT). We have the technical note and we are drafting the paper now.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
1: 当初の計画以上に進展している
理由
The first year’s plan has been achieved. Further, the work of Tomoo Kikuchi and I are much beyond my expectation. Now we do not just have an epistemic model which has “visions/possibilities” to be tested; we now have python codes that can do calculation and proper data (from various fields, e.g., political science and international trade) that can be used to test and simulate. Now we have a new framework which can integrate various components (including but not limited to epistemic GT), which opens a fruitful vision of the future research.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
First, we need to finish the Kikuchi-Liu paper. After completing the drafting we plan to incorporate more complicated components, e.g., incomplete information. This would lead to a more specific epistemic model which can be tested and simulated.
Second, the Liu-Fabio paper need to be completed. My plan is to go to Bocconi University for a two-year post-doc project and I believe the result can be incorporated into more general models. We may use data generated in COVID-19 period to test the model.
Third, I am now working on part three in my plan: combining evolution with epistemic model. By talking with researchers in Bocconi we noticed some progress in self-confirming equilibrium in macroeconomics which provided a great hint for my plan. This would be an important part of my work in 2022.
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