| 研究実績の概要 |
During the second year of the project (FY2022), we developed analytical methods to estimate the short-term associations between PM2.5 and mortality in Japan. To quantify these associations, we conducted a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the location-specific risks of PM2.5 were estimated by utilizing a time-series quasi-Poisson model. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model along with a flexible functional form of splines to evaluate the location-specific associations. We controlled various important covariates, including weather variables, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term time trends. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the robustness of our findings. To assess and compare the shapes of the concentration-response (CR) relationship, all local CR functions were formulated using a unified statistical design. In the second stage, we used a random-effect meta-analysis to combine the regional and national overall estimates.
|
| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
In the project's final year, we will conduct a regional risk assessment based on our FY2022 findings. Local estimations will be mapped to visualize the risks and the efficacy of the current AQG standards will be assessed using the CR functions obtained for each location in Japan. The geographical heterogeneity will be explained based on indicators of local characteristics. In addition, the susceptible population will be identified through stratified analyses.
|
