研究実績の概要 |
Publication of first paper on UN security council elections [Caro-Burnett and Weese 2023]. Follow-up work on political economy of international climate agreements now underway, also with Johann Caro Burnett (Hiroshima University). Joint research with David Schonholzer (Stockholm University) involved preparations for sabbatical visit to Stockholm University September 2023 - June 2024. Some progress on models of conflict: cooperative game coalition formation models appear to not be analytically tractable for wars involving more than two players. A search of the theoretical literature reveals very few theory papers analyzing a symmetric game of war with three or more players, and none of the small number of papers that do exist seems likely to lead to a reasonable estimation strategy. Non-cooperative form games may be more useful. In particular, with non-cooperative form games we can abandon the restriction that players must choose a "side" in the war, and that there must be exactly two sides. If we allow any player to fight any other player, then the model of war becomes a more standard network formation model, where any edge (i.e. war) is allowed to either exist or not exist in a given period. Reference: Caro-Burnett, J., & Weese, E. (2023). UN Security Council Elections as an Incentive for Compliance. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231153575
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現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
Project with Johann Caro Burnett on UN security council elections is finished, with final publication in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. Project with David Schonholzer has one completed working paper (currently under review at economics journals), plus our current project on wars over the past 1000 years in Europe. We do not yet have a working paper for this project because we have still not resolved some important issues in the estimation strategy; however, this will be a major focus of my sabbatical research next year.
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今後の研究の推進方策 |
Publication of the original working paper with David Schonholzer will hopefully occur in the near future, either in the journal where it is currently under review or a lower ranked journal. We have hired an RA at Stockholm University to help us with estimating the relative powers of countries in the European state system, using our data on territorial transfers over the past 1000 years: we will hopefully have results from this at some point in the coming year. The schedule for follow-up work with Johann Caro Burnett is unclear because he has recently been promoted to a tenure track position and the best time for performing this work depends in part on the schedule for his tenure evaluation.
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