| 研究課題/領域番号 |
22K04594
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| 研究機関 | 群馬大学 |
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研究代表者 |
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| 研究分担者 |
荒木 幹也 群馬大学, 大学院理工学府, 教授 (70344926)
天谷 賢児 群馬大学, 大学院理工学府, 教授 (20221731)
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| 研究期間 (年度) |
2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| キーワード | Traffic Accident / Autonomous Vehicle / Vehicle Automation / Traffic Accident Cost / Traffic Safety / Car Crash |
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| 研究実績の概要 |
A vehicle stock turnover model was used to assess the diffusion of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet until 2050. The vehicle stock turnover model provides information regarding the evolution in time of the share of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the vehicle stock and the annual traveled distance. The model uses a ‘silver bullet’ approach, where Level 5 autonomous vehicles are universally adopted at the end of a technology diffusion span of 30 years.
Microscopic traffic simulations are being used to determine the baseline for traffic accident occurrence before the start of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion, focusing on rear-end traffic accidents between two vehicles. Characteristics of the traffic accidents can be obtained from these simulations.
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| 現在までの達成度 (区分) |
現在までの達成度 (区分)
2: おおむね順調に進展している
理由
It has been possible to utilize our previous research about electric-drive vehicle diffusion in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet and road freight vehicle fleet to continue developing a model to estimate the diffusion of Level 5 autonomous vehicles in the Japanese light-duty vehicle fleet, considering the dynamics of vehicle stock turnover.
Since the estimation of a baseline for traffic accident occurrence before the start of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion has been more difficult than expected, the research has focused on rear-end traffic accidents between two vehicles, which represent the largest share of traffic accidents in Japan.
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| 今後の研究の推進方策 |
Until now, the assessment of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion has been limited to the light-duty vehicle fleet. During Fiscal Year 2023, the vehicle stock turnover model will be expanded to include road freight vehicles, allowing a more complete picture of Level 5 autonomous vehicle diffusion in Japan.
After completing the estimation of the baseline for traffic accident occurrence, Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be included in the microscopic traffic simulation, with the aim of studying their impact on the occurrence and severity of traffic accidents.
Vehicle speed and acceleration at the moment of the traffic accident will be combined with parameters for the vehicles and passengers to develop a model to estimate probability of injury.
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